Buhari on Remuneration and Housing

Awareness

The Buhari/Bakare manifesto puts the issues of remuneration (wage rates) and housing together in one section and on some level putting these two things together shows a lack of awareness of the scale and scope of both these issues taken separately.

That said there is a recognition that the issue of wages exists in both the private and public sector. It also highlights the importance of saving. It however ignores a number of issues including the role of trade unions in wage disputes, the effect of inflation and the cost of staples like food, fuel and electricity. There is also no mention made of the minimum wage.

In regards to housing, it acknowledges the importance of instituting a solid mortgage market that is able to catering to those in employment as well as the need for mass housing schemes. It also alludes to the issue of funding. It however doesn’t explicitly talk about low cost housing or the differing housing needs of urban and rural areas or the maintenance of existing buildings and how to ensure safety standards in future builds.

Ambition

This section contains the explicit promise to enhance public sector pay, which to be honest is mandatory at this stage. While it will require some moving around of money, it really ought not to put a strain on the economy to properly remunerate civil servants. Encouraging employer-employee consultations is not ambitious at all as neither party is bound to anything and it will be very difficult to force results from such an arrangement.

In terms of housing, the institution of proper mortgage system is very ambitious as it will require a number of institutions to ensure that there is sufficient supply at reasonable interest rates and that there is demand from people who are trackable and are able to repay the loans.  As to building ‘mass-housing’ this really depends on the scale of the housing that is to be built as to whether it will be ambitious or not.

Detail

This section like much of the manifesto is lacking in any real detail. The goal is painted out in vague terms, but we are not told what a fair wage will be, how it is to be calculated an how it would be enforced. We are not told how many houses the government intends to build using this Private Public Partnership nor where they will be or how long they will take to complete. We are not told what incentives/regulations will be put in place to have the desired effect on the mortgage market.

My View

This is one of the weakest sections of the whole document.  Firstly it takes two issues that should be big issues in their own right and then tries to amalgamate them. The issue of housing, particularly in urban areas is one of great concern. I think that the government should be looking to move people away from Lagos and Abuja by building cheap housing somewhere else.  If not for the problem of corruption in Nigeria, I would advocate that the government build these low-cost houses using private contractors and then sell them at a fixed price , giving preference to young couples.

As to the issue of wage, the CPC really needed to come out in favour or against the minimum wage as they did not their rhetoric on a fair wage will be seen as just that, rhetoric. I would have preferred a plan that set up a system akin to what they have in Ghana that pegs all government employees wages to each other’s e.g a teacher makes x, university lecturer makes 2x, a senator makes 4x etc so that if the cost of living rises then everybody’s wages rise proportionally. It would also reduce the propensity to strike and would give a whole new meaning to the term collective bargaining.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 1.75

Ambition: 1.75

Detail: .75

My view: 2.0

Buhari on Senior Citizen Welfare

Awareness

There may be questions as to how much of an issue senior citizen welfare really is, after all 70% of the population is under 30 and only a fraction of the remaining 30% will ever make it to the age of 70. That said, the issue is one of importance in the civil service and other forms of corporate employment and is important to the families of such people. In an atmosphere of rampant youth unemployment, family income becomes more important. And taken in this context there is a potential problem of the burden of retired or unproductive people with no income in already strained households. The manifesto doesn’t do much to explain this reality but it does implicitly highlight some of the problems including the slow or non-payment of retirement packages.

Ambition

There is no new policy that is put forward in this section; rather it reiterates a commitment to ensure that the existing pension system is carried out properly with an emphasis placed on the process of review of the process to ensure that the standard of living of pensioners is maintained.

It could have gone further perhaps to include a mandatory state pension as part of a taxation system for all adults or even by changing the retirement age.

Detail

There is little detail here, but that is because there doesn’t really need to be much detail given. As already mentioned there is no new policy being put in place

My View

Nigeria has a very young population, most of who are not thinking about their pensions let alone inclined to vote on those grounds, so it seems like an odd choice from a political standpoint. That said though, life expectancy will continue to improve for the average Nigerian over the next few decades, so in a sense there is a pension crisis looming at some point in the future. The problem now is simply one of mismanagement though, with pension funds of workers both in the private and public sector going missing. The solution in my opinion is that people should be encouraged to save but they shouldn’t be forced to take out a pension with an unreliable system, people aren’t stupid and if at any point a state (or even private) insurance/pension scheme becomes viable people will take it out. This issue of pensions however, raises other questions of retirement age? In a nation where the average life expectancy is 48 years, 70% of the population is under 30 and the median age is 19 is there not a strong argument for lowering the retirement age?

Score (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.5

Ambition: 1.0

Detail: 2.5

My View: 2.75

Buhari on Institutional Reform

*NB: This section could have been spread into the four constituent parts as it is in the manifesto, but then these sections would have scored very poorly in all categories*

Awareness

This section of the manifesto is wide reaching in terms of the institutions that it tends to reform – the Judiciary; all Law Enforcement; all Regulatory Agencies, Government Bodies and Professional bodies created by law; and all democratic institutions. In regard to each of these institutions the plan does well to allude to the problems which are currently plaguing them. However, in a section labelled institutional reform it fails to explicitly talk about constitutional reform, the one set of reforms that would adequately encompass all the aforementioned.

Ambition

The plan reads as very ambitious in this section, it plans to review all of the judiciary, all law enforcement etc. Even if that is merely an academic or theoretical review of all these institutions it will be epic. This review will not only encompass the legal system and the police force but presumably it will include bodies such as INEC, EFCC and ICPC. Many of the described institutions are in such a decrepit state that it will be difficult to revitalize them to the levels described in the document, and it will be even more difficult to do these reforms concurrently.  Any possible change will come up against stiff opposition from those who have entrenched interests in the status quo and as such will require a tremendous amount of political capital and will.

Detail

There is much detail given about the goals of all the reforms and from this there is a fair amount of implicit detail given about the current state of affairs. However, there is no detail given about the process of reform, how it will be made consultative, how long will any consultation take place, who are the relevant stake holders that will be consulted, how many decisions will be made at the federal and how many at the state level. There are a number of logistic issues that will arise if the institutions are to be reformed supposedly while they are still carrying out their functions and these issues are not addressed.

My View

The current constitution of Nigeria was hastily put together in the transition to civilian rule in 1999. It largely rehashed previous constitutions and there was almost no consultative process in its creation and was passed by military decree (i.e. no referendum, not even a sitting of the house of assembly). Like it or not this constitution is flawed and much of the reason why the institutions of state do not work is because the constitution itself doesn’t work. What Buhari and the CPC is proposing here is constitutional change even though they do not want to call it that. They plan to ‘review and reform’ almost every institution that is created by the constitution, when the more sensible approach would be to ‘review and reform’ the whole constitution. If we are going to start ‘reviewing and reforming’ the constitution, why not just start again from scratch with a real consultative process and a referendum for Nigerians to decide the social contract under which they plan to live?

I like the intent of this section, but I would have liked for it to have been bolder and come out and said what a lot of people are thinking.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 4.0

Ambition: 4.25

Detail: 2.25

My View: 3.75

Buhari on Infrastructure

Awareness

Buhari’s plan outlines well the importance of infrastructure to the development of the country. It also picks up on the scale and scope – agriculture, power, transport and telecommunications -of the current inadequacy of infrastructure in Nigeria as well as the effect that this is having on the economy. The plan also recognizes the potential for job creation that the building of infrastructure will have. While not in this section but rather as part of the Mission, there is an explicit mention of the need to develop a maintenance culture.

However by lumping all these disparate yet individually important issues into one the General shows a lack of awareness of the scale of these issues. You are not going to be able to solve the problem of transport in the same way that the problem of power generation will be solved.

Ambition

As all these issues are treated together as one it is hard to tell how ambitious the plan is in any particular respect. In addition to which there is no clear policy that one can to point to. What this section does promise is that when infrastructures are undertaken they will be done through a combination of public private partnership (PPP). There is also a policy to implement a strict regulatory framework for these PPPs.

Detail

There is little or no detail as to what will be built, when, where or by whom.  It is however made clear that funding for these projects will be through PPPs.

My View

There is very little to actually go on in this section and in the whole document there is very little beyond rhetoric said about the state of infrastructure. This is particularly surprising from a political standpoint because it is the delivery of new roads, or better GSM signal or constant electricity that will really win voters on the ground, in addition to which the planned privatisation of PHCN is an easy policy to come out in favour or against, yet no mention was made of it. In my opinion the CPC should have treated transport, power and technology as three separate issues because these are the issues that people actually talk about. It is an opportunity missed.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.5

Ambition: 2.5

Details: 1.0

My View: 1.0

Buhari on Healthcare

Awareness

The Maternal death rate of Nigeria is higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa so in one respect by formulating policy on maternal healthcare the CPC has acknowledged the problem. But in another respect they could have gone further to link such a high maternal mortality rate to the prevalence of under-age brides in certain parts of the country. The manifesto also acknowledges the importance of infant healthcare and regular and reliable drug supply. Also by mentioning the need for health insurance there is a nod to the issue of funding the healthcare system.

Beyond this the Buhari/Bakare manifesto could have gone further and highlighted the human resource problems facing the healthcare sector, the need for infrastructure and how the issues of health tie in with other issues such as education, sanitation etc.

Ambititon

The plan to extend free healthcare to pregnant women, children under the age of 18, the elderly over the age of 70 and people suffering from infectious diseases such as TB and HIV/AIDS has to be seen as very ambitious. In essence he (Buhari) is extending free healthcare to the majority of people who will need it in Nigeria (if the policy was extended to include malaria in the infectious diseases then he would be granting free healthcare to virtually all who need it). It will be an enormous task to train and equip enough people to do it and to ensure that the institutions built will be adequately funded and staffed.

Detail

Two of the policies in this section are well outlined. To be fair they are very blanket policies of free healthcare to a number of people and introducing a better drug management system. However, there is no information as to when they are likely to be implemented, how they will be funded and how they will be monitored. The policy to reform and strengthen the health insurance scheme is very vague, there is no indication which direction the reform will take and there is definitely no measureable goal against which its achievement can be measured.

My View

Firstly a promise to provide almost universal free healthcare doesn’t sit well with the principles of liberalism and free market economics that is stated in the mission section of the document. Secondly I think that rather than scaling up state involvement in healthcare, we should be scaling it down. The same way the state is committed to universal basic education; it should be committed to universal basic healthcare and nothing more. The state should ensure that everyone has access to a minimal but evenly distributed level of healthcare and after that the private sector should be allowed to do the rest. The issues of maternal/infant mortality and infectious diseases can be better tackled in cheaper ways such as through better education, better sanitation and better primary healthcare to detect issues before they go too far. Also any real discussion of maternal health in Nigeria cannot be had without a discussion of child brides particularly in Northern Nigeria, were state legislatures have been reluctant to pass laws restricting marriage to minors. As with this Manifesto’s section on education, if you believe that the problem with healthcare in Nigeria is not with the system but rather with the performance of the system then this is a very ambitious and good plan. But as with education, I do not believe this.

Scores (out of 5)

Awareness: 3.0

Ambition: 4.0

Detail: 1.5

My View: 2.25

Buhari on Education

Awareness

There is little done in the manifesto itself to expound the need for education or the problems facing the education sector. However, there is a level of awareness that can be inferred from the policies out forward. The policies show awareness of the need to review the curriculums being taught in school and an awareness of the demand for education that is often coupled with lack of access to it. His policies also demonstrate a commitment to the Universal Basic Education (UBE) goal.

That said there are a lot of areas that the diminutive section on education doesn’t touch on. There is no mention of the quality of education in terms of the abilities/availability/commitment of the teachers and the availability of equipment and resources. It makes no reference to how schools are controlled and funded. It also neglects the education of girl-children and nomads, which need special attention in Nigeria.

Ambition

The first policy for universal attendance of junior secondary school is part of the nine years of education (UBE) commitment of the Millennium Development Goals to which Nigeria is a signatory. So this should really be seen as a pre-requisite for any current or future administration, although the compulsory continuation to senior secondary education and the emphasis on functionality throughout do show a level of ambition.

The ambition of any curriculum review depends on the review of the curriculum itself. Whether it will simply bring up to date outdated learning systems or practices or will choose to overhaul the whole thing remains to be seen.

The establishment of an education bank, geared at providing student loans will be a monumental task. Not only the initial difficulty of setting up and financing it, but the establishment of a system that will ensure that the bank is able to recover the money it lends will also be difficult.

Detail

This section of the plan only provides the policies in its barest forms. As already noted, there is no expounding of the scale of the issue, so too is there very little detail given of the how. The question with many of the policies will be how will they be funded (privately/publicly, federal/state) and how will they be monitored to ensure that standards are kept and in these regards the manifesto has nothing to say.

My View

I think that education should be the bedrock of any political manifesto for these upcoming elections. The ramifications of a good education system are wide reaching in terms of everything from crime to health to the economy and so I was particularly disappointed in this section.  I feel there is a need for a revolution in the education sector that will ensure UBE for all Nigerians, but beyond that will not just follow the trend. The focus really ought to be on vocational training and sector specific training. There are a multitude of unemployed graduates so stop funnelling more 16-18 year olds into an inadequate university system. The plan is not offensive to me, I understand if you believe the current 6-6-(4) or 6-3-3-(4) system of education is eventually going to come good in Nigeria then this is what needs to be done, but I don’t believe that.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.0

Ambition: 3.0

Detail: 0.5

My View: 1.5

Buhari on National Security

Awareness

The CPC Manifesto is explicitly aware of the worsening security situation and does well to say that the decline into anarchy must first be stopped before any meaningful solutions can be put into place. The document also explicitly talks about the need to decentralise the security agencies and also points out the wide range of agencies, bodies and institutions that will be needed in order to properly address the issue. The plan singles out the Niger-delta and talks about the socio-economic causes of the militancy, however, it fails to extend this analysis to other insecure areas in Nigeria. Though mentioned in another section, the plan also shows awareness of the need to reform the police force.

Ambition

CPC aims to use every muscle of the state, including in certain situations the army to stop the spread or the deepening of insecurity. It also aims to invest in high-tech equipment to improve the work of the police force. Both these policies are neither here nor there. The state of police force equipment is embarrassing and reinvestment was probably long overdue. State failure can be defined as the loss of the monopoly of legitimate violence and so in that regard in order to prevent state failure the government has to do everything it can (including using the army of necessary) to prevent such a loss of control.

By far the most ambitious part of this plan is the policy to decentralize policing and security forces in Nigeria. This will require a constitutional amendment and will most likely face fierce opposition from the legislature at the federal level. It will require huge investment in each of the states and will require a huge expenditure of political capital to get done. If we take this as the reform of all law enforcement bodies that is referred to in the plan then that to becomes ambitious.

Details

The section on security (and the sub-section on police reform) are lacking in any real detail. The policy of reform and localization is not well defined. Will police forms be regionalised or devolved to states or cities? Will it be blanket devolution to all states/regions or will it simply be in specific areas? How will these forces be funded and when is the process of devolution going to begin?

For the ‘overall domestic security effort’ the plan does well to outline all the institutions that will be involved, but it does not mention a structure, a leadership or even a strategy for solving the problem or are we to assume that simply deploying all these people will make the place safer. For this policy as with the other policies in this section there is no reference made to measurable targets or timescales etc.

My View

I like this section, purely for the bravery to promise what a lot of the experts have been asking for for a while i.e. the localization of policing in Nigeria. I know it would be a risky move in a country in which national unity has not been cemented to arm and train security forces that have allegiance only to their state/region or whatever and not necessarily to Nigeria as a whole. But I am of the personal belief that we need to make strides towards true federalism and this is a very important step. I refuse to believe that Nigeria will break up but if that is the way it is going to go then why prolong the agony?

In terms of tackling insecurity, I think that the plan perhaps purposely ignores unrest in the north and focuses on the Niger Delta. While all these problems are essentially socio-economic I agree that the slide into state failure must be arrested by any means necessary. So all in all I like this section of the plan, it is well thought out but firm, but it certainly could do with some fleshing out to really sell it. 

Scores (out of 5)

Awareness: 4.25

Ambition: 3.75

Detail: 1.25

My View: 4

Buhari on the Economy

Awareness

The CPC Manifesto shows awareness of the global context in which any modern economy must be viewed. It overtly acknowledges the role that both the private and public sector have to play and if we include the preamble on prosperity, the document also acknowledges the role that human capital has to play in the economy. There are is also an awareness of the role of the financial sector and the role of agriculture that can be inferred from the policies put forward. However, these issues could have been explicitly discussed. There is also no reference made to the manufacturing sector or possibly new/green industries. No reference is made to key economic measure such as growth, trade deficit, inflation or interest rates. 

Ambition

The plan seeks to review the process of privatization – this on the one hand is ambitious given the interest groups that could potentially lose out but ultimately must be seen as necessary.  Post-2008 a review of the financial and banking system in any country in the world is also necessary and as such can it really be seen as ambitious? The need to diversify the Nigerian economy is well documented, again a potentially difficult task but surely must be seen as a requisite for moving forward.

Overall in terms of the economy, the manifesto does not shy away from any of the main issues plaguing the economy and so definitely cannot be seen as cautious. However, the plan lacks any intention to go beyond the necessary and so can’t be seen as ambitious either. That said the introduction of a micro-credit scheme can be seen as going beyond this

Detail

This section is very short on detail. While the policy points to be pursued are well outlined, there is no mention of what the review and re-evaluation of privatization would entail. The plan doesn’t say what reforms will be put in place in the banking sector and how this will broaden or diversify the wealth distribution. A micro-credit scheme is mentioned but it does not say if it will be state-run or privately run and how widely it will be implemented. The programme of diversification is laid out in very vague terms. In fact the whole section is laid out in very vague terms and in the entirety of the section on the economy there is not one single figure, target or date set against which performance of these policies can be measured.

My View

The preamble of the manifesto talks of liberalism and free market economics and that made me initially sceptical. After reading the section on the economy there is very little that is free-market about it. General Buhari’s manifesto is talking about public private partnerships and pension schemes etc. I think that if he addresses the core issues he seeks to address then this is a good plan, however with such little detail while he has come up with the ‘what’ he still probably has to come up with the how. In addition I am very sceptical of micro-finance particularly in the African context, there is research to show that repayment rates and the net impact are lower in Africa compared to the Indian sub-continent where the scheme first gained fame.

Personally I think in the 21^st century you can’t come up with an economic plan that doesn’t include a green aspect. Not only is it good for the environment, but green industries create more jobs and foster technological development. I would have also liked to see some reference made to economic management and fiscal responsibility or to inflation or to the problems of state borrowing. It leaves a lot to be desired

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.0

Ambition: 2.5

Detail: 1

My View: 2.0

Ribadu on Niger Delta

Awareness
The document raises the issues that perhaps lie behind the more publicised issues of militancy. It talks about the environmental and economic problems that underlie the Niger-Delta Issue. It also does well to mention the role of the private sector, in particular the oil companies in any solution to the problem.
On the other hand, it fails to deal with the role of politicians in mobilizing (and often arming) youth and perpetuating the status quo. It also fails to mention the history of military intervention in the region and the legacy this has left behind.

Ambition
The stressing of the long term nature of the solution is a good starting point, there is also a good focus on the role of the private sector in retraining and providing jobs in the are. The revival of 'moribund' industrial and agricultural projects is very ambitious as they will require a fresh round of investment, management and continuing political will. The plan aims to enforce laws that are going to be passed or are going to come into force, this doesn't demonstrate and real ambition (beyond a commitment to the rule of law that should just be standard). The attempts to apply green initiatives in the Niger-Delta is on the other hand genuinely ambitious in the context of Nigeria. The creation of 'Green Jobs' will require a long term commitment in order to have the desired effect.
The plan fails to tackle some issues in regards to the oil companies and their track record and the plan could have been more ambitious by holding the oil companies to account in regards to their environmental records and perhaps limiting the number of immigrants they can employ.

Details
As which much of the other sections of this plan, this section is detailed in outlining the problem, but is weak in the nitty-gritty of how these problems will be ameliorated. There is however, reference made to several distinct policy points that span both the political and the economic.

My view
I think that the candidate is right to focus on job creation and environmental degradation. However, I think that history has shown that the private sector (particularly oil companies) aren't interested in the plight of people beyond how it affects their bottom line. The people of the region should therefore take some stake or ownership directly in oil production in order to ensure environmental projection, job creation and economic diversification.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.0
Ambition: 4.0
Detail: 2.5
My View: 3.0

Ribadu on Foreign Policy

Awareness
This section of Mr. Ribadu's plan realises that until Nigeria has sorted out its domestic situation, it can't be overly active in terms of foreign policy. Despite this, the plan could have done more to acknowledge Nigeria's role as a regional player in ECOWAS etc. and the implications this has or could have economically or militarily (although mention was made of the gulf of Guinea Commission). It also neglects to mention the role of diplomacy and foreign policy in addressing trade imbalances, attracting foreign capital and redressing the brain drain.

Ambition
The plan has little in the way of actual policy but demonstrates a desire to cut back the role Nigeria plays outside of our crusade for democratic government in the region.

Detail
As there is little in the way of policy, there is little in the way of detail, although reviving the Gulf of Guinea Commission is mentioned explicitly.

My View
I agree for the most part with the Mallam on this section. We as a nation need to stop throwing our weight about on the international scene until we have sorted out the problems at home. We need a period of isolation, where the only foreign policy addressed is to pursue economic issues such as the removal of subsidies and trade barriers, the compensating of developing economies for the brain drain and attracting strategic foreign direct investment

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.25
Ambition: 1.0
Detail: 1.5
My view: 4.25

Ribadu on Social Security

Awareness
This section of the plan notes the failure of social security programmes in Nigeria. It recognizes a need for both the public and private sector to be involved. On the other hand, it doesn't talk about the role of NGOs, charities and religious organizations. Also no mention is made of the need for taxation, although this may be implied by the policies put forwards

Ambition
The single policy explicitly stated - that of a the development of an identity management system - is so necessary for the fair calculation and collection of taxes as well as the fair calculation and distribution of the benefits of welfare programmes. It will take a huge logistical operation, maybe involving another census (With all the politics that entails) the digitalization of all records and the creation of future record systems, the completion of up to date and accurate maps and address systems amongst other things. In order to be done properly it will require a great deal of capital (including political capital) but if it is actually accomplished it will have a lasting legacy on the Nigerian state.

Detail
The manifesto gives us an idea of how it wants to solve the problem and gives as its first step the development of an identity management system and talks about reinvigorating the national identity management commission. However, beyond this there is no detail given, no time scale, no funding plan, no breakdown of what exactly is entailed in creating a 'secure and efficient' identity management system.

My View
Social security or the lack thereof in Nigeria exasperates the problems of poverty, of education, of crime and security and of low level corruption. That said, I think the reliance on oil money separates people from the state, in order for people to demand the level of social security/welfare needed, they need to have a vested interest in the state and the best way to do this is through taxation. Team Ribadu's failure to focus on taxation loses him points but the priority placed on the identity management system regains him some points, as this would be necessary for any proper taxation system.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 4.5
Detail: 3.0
My View: 3.25

Ribadu on Women

Awareness
The plan seems very aware, at least in terms of rhetoric, of the importance of women to society, but fails to acknowledge why women are so important: their role in child education, their role in primary healthcare, their role in household saving and small enterprise. It also ignores how the treatment of women varies according to region, religion, wealth and socio economic status.

Ambition
The implementation of the Beijing Declaration, the World Summit Declaration, The Ouagadougou Plan of action and the MDGs may on the surface seem ambitious, but is difficult to say. The MDG was to remove disparity in primary education by 2005 and at all levels by 2015, if it aims at full implementation of the target perhaps it should be seen as ambitious as the 2005 targets haven't been met. The Beijing declaration set targets for 2000 and its targets haven't been met yet either.

Detail
There is no detail given as to what is going to be done in order to meet the internationally agreed goal. It doesn't say how much will be spent or how it would be funded. There is no mention of any concrete policy as to how to increase female participation in politics or increase the value of women's health, security or safety. In fact there is not one single policy statement in the this section.

My view
In the 21st Century, 'women issues' are acknowledged as a key component of any development plan. It however seems hard to formulate and implement policies that would have real effects on the fortune of women and 'girl-children'. However, I feel that the plan could have been more explicit in a commitment to fight child marriage and perhaps introduce an education programme that is part-time for young mothers. That said, the male dominance and the mentality of Nigerian society makes the discussion of women issues difficult, so Team Ribadu must be commended for their awareness of the problem

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 0.5
My View: 3.0

Ribadu on Corruption

Awareness
We have to take it as a given that he is aware of the nature, causes and implication of corruption in Nigeria due to his previous role. However, the manifesto doesn't detail the nature or indeed the scale of corruption in Nigeria and perhaps this is needed. Ho does do well to show that corruption in the private sector is also important and that corruption in general is bad for democracy.

Ambition
Perhaps due to his previous role, expectations were raised as to how he was going to fight corruption. There is no new initiative, no new hardline, no new taskforce. Instead what he is suggesting is that the system as a whole is made to work properly. However, given the current state that the three branches of the state -legislative, executive and judiciary - are in , restoring them to the right level of accountability is in itself ambitious. Also increased regulation of private markets is a controversial topic all over the world and so any move to do so will also be ambitious.

Detail
The plan for fighting corruption seems to be to strengthen the existing counter-corruption institutions, but no solid details on how this will be done are given. Will it be through increased funding, increased powers or consolidation of agencies. There is mention of regular training for legislature and judiciary and there is mention of citizen empowerment but again there fails to be any concrete policy plans to back this up.

My view
This section of the plan disappointed me. I thought the man who was the infamous anti-corruption tsar would come out with a detailed and forceful plan bursting with new policies and initiatives on how to fight corruption in all its guises. There is no mention of simple initiatives like digitalizing government accounts (moving away from cash) or like sterner punishments for officials who mis-declare their wealth (or at least some punishment). Something, anything for people to hold on to and say under this candidate things might actually change and this wasn't forthcoming. Even the rhetoric is tame and maybe this was deliberately done so as not to alienate him from the political class. But all in all on every front the section on corruption and governance left a lot to be desired.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 2.75
Detail: 1.0
My View: 1.0

Ribadu on Defence and National Security

Awareness
The fact that these two things are put into one section, suggest a lack of awareness. The police force is meant to prevent crime and keep the peace at home, and turning the army against your own population is a sign of state failure.
In terms of the problem with the police force, the plan is very good on the issues that are causing the police force to be inefficient - lack of training, being reactive rather than proactive, lack of equipment, lack of professionalism etc - however, it seems to skirt round the issue of whether the police needs to be restructured, should the police force not be run by individual states?
The plan is also good in realizing the role that the citizenry will play in reducing crime and how by bridging the gap between them and the police the work of crime prevention will be made easier.
In terms of the armed forces, it identifies 6 key areas that affect the armed forces and are largely concerned with the logistics of running the military in Nigeria in terms of equipment, housing, healthcare, pay and retirement benefits. Only one concerns the strategic role of the army, and given the history of military intervention in Nigeria questions must be raised about the strategic role of the military.

Ambition
In terms of the police and the armed forces the plan seems to be to restore them to full working order. While there is no doubt that the task will be difficult, requiring commitment of resources and political capital, it is not overly ambitious. In terms of citizen involvement, this is a relatively new concept in Nigerian security. The ambition of zero kidnapping is relatively ambitious in the circumstances and will need a plan.

Details
There is detail as to the implementation of continuous training for the police force and the introduction of performance based promotion. There is also detail of the citizen police meetings.
In terms of the armed forces the problems are well outlined and as such the policies to resolve them are implied. Nonetheless, slightly more detail could have been given for example how they will ensure consistency of procurement/maintenance of equipment, how regularly uniforms will be replaced etc.

My View
I think as commendable as every part of this section is, it misses out three vital points. One is preventing the causes of crime: by addressing the issue of unemployed young men one could easily reduce the incidence of kidnapping, armed robbery etc. There also needs to be a serious review of the judicial and penitentiary systems, so that criminals are punished by legal routes and innocent people are released ( this may involve clearing a backlog of cases/criminals currents incarcerated) Thirdly the plan doesn't address the issue of localizing police, I have to believe that localized police squads will be able to deal with local crime, although issues of national unity may need to be addressed before this can be happen.
In terms of the armed forces, we need to have a detailed expression of the future role of the army. There also needs to be a truth and reconciliation committee to address the crimes committed by the army during the civil war, under military rule and more recently in the Niger Delta.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.75
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 4.0
My view: 3.5

Ribadu on The Economy

Awareness
'The Pathway' is very perceptive of the problems of the Nigerian Economy. It acknowledges the problem of unemployment ( in particular youth and graduate unemployment) and the effect that this is having on education. It also notices the not-so-well publicised problems of a growing fiscal deficit, diminishing excess crude accounts, diminishing foreign exchange, increased domestic debt and the problem of states borrowing beyond their means. There is also an implicit nod to the need to diversify the economy away from the oil-sector.
However, there is no mention of the problem of inflation and in particular regarding the inflation of food prices and seasonal price variation. There is also no mention of income inequality.

Ambition
The aim of reducing youth unemployment will no doubt be difficult, but it has to be seen as necessary rather than ambitious. The failure to achieve it will lead to economic rot and political instability for generations to come. That said, the introduction of target based economic planning in Nigeria is ambitious in itself but beyond that the targets that are set (7-8% growth for the next five years) are very ambitious especially as without proper diversification the fortunes of the Nigerian economy are dictated by external factors ( global commodity, oil and food prices). So the less ambitious sounding plan for diversification is important to any grander plans for the economy.

Detail
The plan is very detailed in its analysis of the problem, It is very detailed in its goals giving measurable targets and specific timescales. Despite this, it is not forthcoming in what sepcific policies will be used to achieve these targets. It speaks of investment in infrastructure, healthcare education etc and creating 'an enabling environment' but this sort of rhetoric will surely be common to most people's manifestos and without specific policies to promote, then these are meaningless.

My View
I think the Nigerian government really doesn't have a saving mentality, building up reserves wil just leave more in the kitty for the next government to steal. I feel therefore that governemnt should spend, spend on new industries, spend on subsidizing burgeoning industries, spend on training and possibly spend on state-owned enterprises ( especially in agriculture). I am also disappointed that there is no plan to combat high inflation or at least bring it into the single figures. Having said that Mr. Ribadu's plan is on the money about a lot of the problems facing the economy and the targets set out to combat them are commendable.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 3.5
Detail: 1.5
My View: 3.0

Ribadu on Agriculture and Food Security

Awareness
Here he recognizes the historical failure of agricultural policy in Nigeria despite the well documented human and natural resources available to implement them. His plan also recognizes the role agriculture has in terms of reducing imports and creating jobs. In addition to this it does well to acknowledge that the failings in this sector are failings of productivity and not of effort.
However, the document could have done more to recognize the role played by food prices in terms of inflation and overall poverty. It also fails to link the failure of commercial agriculture in Nigeria to the policies (vis a vis subsidies) of the western world.

Ambition
The policy that is mentioned here is to provide every school child with an egg and a glass of juice/milk everyday by 2014. The plan also wants to put in place a system of grants and loans to help farmers. These are relatively ambitious without necessarily being revolutionary.

Detail
The Policy of providing school children with egg and milk is fairly detailed in that it is easily measurable and a time frame is given, however it fails to say who will fund it and how it will be distributed and who will enforce it. The grant and loan system is vague, vague in its criteria for giving out the loans and vague as to which crops will be supported. In general, the section is vague as to how the administration would seek to solve the problems of agriculture highlighted in the plan

My View
Agriculture is so important for any developing country, so much so that it needs to be at the core of economic/industrial/social policy.
There are problems surrounding property rights that need to be addressed first, but principally I think Nigeria should identify the food crops that are necessary for the nation and invest public finds in them - either through marketing boards (to encourage over-production) or to buy land and grow crops themselves. I think industrial (export orientated) agriculture should be pursued as well, in terms of palm oil, tea, cocoa, coffee, ground nut etc.
The plan to introduce a cup of milk and an egg into each child's school day is admirable but should really be part of a health policy. The use of grants and loans I am always suspicious of in the Nigerian context as it provides an avenue for the easy diversion of funds.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.75
Ambition: 2.75
Detail: 2.0
My View: 2.0

Ribadu on Transport

Awareness
The plan shows awareness of the failures in rail, air, water and road transport. But by focusing on rail fails to recognize the true importance of road travel in Nigeria. It is not just to do with the paving of roads, there are also issues of road quality, mapping of roads, traffic management, road user education etc. So a big area of concern is brushed over.

Ambition
The plan to build a modern rail network out of the bones of the colonial era rail system will be a colossal project and making it viable will be even tougher. Doubling the amount of road paved is admirable, but is it really enough? It is certainly not a comprehensive plan for creating a 21st century road network in Nigeria.
Making air safety a primary objective shouldn't be seen as ambitious but rather as mandatory, but making Nigeria an international hub will take a complete revamp of Nigeria's aviation sector.

Details
This section gives detail of how the programme will be funded ( through Public Private Partnerships) and the model on which it will operate. It also alludes to a pilot scheme that will be run. There is however, no information on deadlines for the pilot or the programme itself nor on how much track will be built and which cities will be connected etc.
The plan to double paved road is concrete (no pun intended) and is accompanied by details. The source of funding is also outlined, however, again there is no time scale set or stated priorities as to what roads will be paved first.
The plans regarding aviation are thin on detail, and there is no mention made of water transport.

My View
I think this section of the plan is well written but i struggle to agree with any of it. I'm not sure the amount of investment needed to build railways would not be better spent improving roads. I am not sure if there will be sufficient demand for private/commercial travel by rail. Will it not put a lot of commercial drivers out of work? I just feel like the ship for rail travel sailed a long time ago (again no pun intended). Road networks, mapping, congestion, road safety etc. would be a better use of money. A world class motorway system will have the desired effect.
Secondly the adoption of the British Railway Model is a failing of the plan, the UK has shown the problems with the model,with high and ever increasing ticket prices, less and less services and train providers going bust or abandoning their routes.
In terms of road renovation the plan isn't nearly ambitious enough, 30% of roads paved by 2015 will simply not be enough. Federal roads could be an efficient way of taxing commercial traders and a good high speed road network could be the veins of the Nation.
In terms of aviation I like the ambition - Nigerian airports should be a hub for travel in the region, of not the continent. This is something that can only be done by making the airport favourable to international carriers, I would have liked more concrete plans as to how this was going to be achieved.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.0
Ambition: 4.0
Detail: 3.25
My View: 1.5

Ribadu on Power

Awareness
The plan demonstrates an appreciation for the importance of power production to the economy and life in general. It recognizes the simple problem that demand for electricity exceeds supply. There is also a detailed analysis of the issue at hand with ample technical information on the nature of power production and distribution.

Ambition
Diversifying the energy mix by introducing clean coal technology would put Nigeria at the cutting edge of technology in terms of power production but would require heavy investment and heavy mining in coal producing regions. The inclusion of alternative energy sources - biomass, solar and wind - is also very ambitious as they will require the installation of new infrastructure, training of personnel and may possibly face opposition from local communities. There is also the somewhat ambitious aim of making PHCN and the power industry in general more customer friendly.

Details
There is and implicit policy to reduce technical and non-technical loss of power, but this is not laid out in any detail. The plan as I can see it is to match supply to demand by increasing supply through lowering loss of power, introducing new types of power production and re-orientating PHCN to better serve customers. This will be coupled with an education programme to minimize demand.
Beyond this, there is little detail: how many coal power stations will be built and by when; how they will be funded; where wind, solar and biomass will be introduced and by when; whether it will publicly or privately funded/run and how much energy all this will produce are all questions that are left to be resolved.

My view
I think that Mr. Ribadu's plan for power sector rejuvenation is good in its intention. We needed to modernise 20 years ago, now we need to revolutionize. The focus of any energy plan now should be on new/green energy, however, a lot of the technology that the Mallam mentions isn't yet at maturity level. There are still question marks over he green credentials of clean coal and things like wind energy attract a lot of criticism for their unsightliness  and their lack of efficiency. I believe that in the nigerian context we should focus on solar energy and biomass ( to deal with the mountains of rubbish piling up all over the country). The plan doesn't address the planned privatization of power production, I would have liked for him to come out either in favour or against it.

Scores ( Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 4.5
Detail: 2.75
My View: 3.25

Ribadu on Education

Awareness
In terms of education, Ribadu seems to be aware of the problem - in its scope, scale, causes and implications. He highlights the role of education for the economic and social development of the country and the need to make education a priority. The plan acknowledges the full range of issues in education: the issues of access to and capacity of educational institutions; the lack of a unified programme on education; the problem of specific disadvantage groups (girl child, alamjiri, nomads etc) and the issue of quality assurance. However, it doesn't address Universal Basic Education (UBE) explicitly.

Ambition
The plan doesn't lay out exactly what it wants to address or how. There is a specific reference made to the priority of funding and the need to meet the UNESCO recommendation on funding education. It also mentions the need to create a unified body in charge of education as well as improved inspection of schools. If we assume that every issue raised is to be addressed, then the plan is very ambitious but otherwise it lacks any real ambition.

Detail
The document is very detailed in its awareness of the problem, however it is very scanty on detail in regards to his goals and even more so in terms of how they are to be achieved.

My View
Education is important and should be the priority of any new government. It has the power to ameliorate a lot of the other problems facing Nigeria. Ribadu does a good job of expounding the problem but for me doesn't stress the importance of education. I think he should have made a commitment to UBE not just in the quantitative aspect of 100% education but in the qualitative aspects in regards to staff and facility. I personally would reduce the focus on secondary and tertiary education from the federal budget. Instead I would focus more on industry-specific vocational training (for agriculture, factory work etc)
The plan does well to identify minority groups ( girls, nomads etc) that need to be addressed; and while I agree, I would focus more on female education as this is the fairest way (not ethnic/region specific) and will have the widest reaching social, economic and health effect.

Scores (out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 2.0
Detail : 1.0
My view: 2.5

Ribadu on health

Awareness
In terms of awareness, Mallam Ribadu acknowledges the need for primary healthcare and investments in human resources, and more long-term the need to invest in secondary and tertiary infrastructure. There is also a nod to the university teaching hospitals.
There are however other problems or health issues that aren't addressed. There is no acknowledgement of the scale of investment needed (an issue in itself). It makes no mention of sanitation and education, easily addressable issues that will have monumental effects on the health of the nation.

Ambition
In terms of ambition, his plan aims to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) vis a vis reducing infant and maternal mortality and combating infectious disease. This on the face of it may not seem ambitious, as the goals are meant to be achieved by 2015 ( coincidentally the end of the next presidential term), however, as it has been suggested by Action Aid international Nigeria, the achievements of the health MDGs need sustained effort to be achieved in Nigeria and so in this regard the pan should be seen as ambitious. The plan to build 6 top of the range secondary and tertiary institutions across the geo-political zones is very ambitious. It will require money, expertise and political capital of epic proportions to be initiated and such commitments will surely need to outlive the presidency to reach the 'world-class' levels it aspires to.

Detail
This section of the manifesto is somewhat dry on detail, it says it will improve healthcare through improvement of human resources and improving efficiency and there is of course the promise of 6 new specialist hospitals. Beyond that however, there isn't much to go on, it talks of using incentives to attract more people to the workforce but leaves it at that. There is no plan set out for how to achieve the MDGs other than their attainment is a goal. There are no other measurable targets set for any of the ambitions, neither is there a time scale set nor are details of the funding of these projects given.

My View
I think health in Nigeria is a complex issue, the scale of health problems is undeniable: life expectancy is less than 50 years, infant mortality was 100/1000 live births in 2003. I think that tackling healthcare should be a job for both the public and private sectors. The government should focus on training and utilising primary healthcare professionals and publicly funded programmes for the time being should be limited to primary healthcare. Investment in secondary/tertiary healthcare should be left largely to the private sector for now. The government should also focus on non-sector specific things that will improve health such as education, sanitation, reducing smoking, promoting healthy active life-styles etc. These will have massive effects and will probably cost less.
A start must be made somewhere and the achievement of the MDGs by 2015 has to be part of any healthcare plan for Nigeria

Scores (out of 5)
Awareness: 3.25
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 2.0
My view: 3.0