Ribadu on Niger Delta

Awareness
The document raises the issues that perhaps lie behind the more publicised issues of militancy. It talks about the environmental and economic problems that underlie the Niger-Delta Issue. It also does well to mention the role of the private sector, in particular the oil companies in any solution to the problem.
On the other hand, it fails to deal with the role of politicians in mobilizing (and often arming) youth and perpetuating the status quo. It also fails to mention the history of military intervention in the region and the legacy this has left behind.

Ambition
The stressing of the long term nature of the solution is a good starting point, there is also a good focus on the role of the private sector in retraining and providing jobs in the are. The revival of 'moribund' industrial and agricultural projects is very ambitious as they will require a fresh round of investment, management and continuing political will. The plan aims to enforce laws that are going to be passed or are going to come into force, this doesn't demonstrate and real ambition (beyond a commitment to the rule of law that should just be standard). The attempts to apply green initiatives in the Niger-Delta is on the other hand genuinely ambitious in the context of Nigeria. The creation of 'Green Jobs' will require a long term commitment in order to have the desired effect.
The plan fails to tackle some issues in regards to the oil companies and their track record and the plan could have been more ambitious by holding the oil companies to account in regards to their environmental records and perhaps limiting the number of immigrants they can employ.

Details
As which much of the other sections of this plan, this section is detailed in outlining the problem, but is weak in the nitty-gritty of how these problems will be ameliorated. There is however, reference made to several distinct policy points that span both the political and the economic.

My view
I think that the candidate is right to focus on job creation and environmental degradation. However, I think that history has shown that the private sector (particularly oil companies) aren't interested in the plight of people beyond how it affects their bottom line. The people of the region should therefore take some stake or ownership directly in oil production in order to ensure environmental projection, job creation and economic diversification.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.0
Ambition: 4.0
Detail: 2.5
My View: 3.0

Ribadu on Foreign Policy

Awareness
This section of Mr. Ribadu's plan realises that until Nigeria has sorted out its domestic situation, it can't be overly active in terms of foreign policy. Despite this, the plan could have done more to acknowledge Nigeria's role as a regional player in ECOWAS etc. and the implications this has or could have economically or militarily (although mention was made of the gulf of Guinea Commission). It also neglects to mention the role of diplomacy and foreign policy in addressing trade imbalances, attracting foreign capital and redressing the brain drain.

Ambition
The plan has little in the way of actual policy but demonstrates a desire to cut back the role Nigeria plays outside of our crusade for democratic government in the region.

Detail
As there is little in the way of policy, there is little in the way of detail, although reviving the Gulf of Guinea Commission is mentioned explicitly.

My View
I agree for the most part with the Mallam on this section. We as a nation need to stop throwing our weight about on the international scene until we have sorted out the problems at home. We need a period of isolation, where the only foreign policy addressed is to pursue economic issues such as the removal of subsidies and trade barriers, the compensating of developing economies for the brain drain and attracting strategic foreign direct investment

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.25
Ambition: 1.0
Detail: 1.5
My view: 4.25

Ribadu on Social Security

Awareness
This section of the plan notes the failure of social security programmes in Nigeria. It recognizes a need for both the public and private sector to be involved. On the other hand, it doesn't talk about the role of NGOs, charities and religious organizations. Also no mention is made of the need for taxation, although this may be implied by the policies put forwards

Ambition
The single policy explicitly stated - that of a the development of an identity management system - is so necessary for the fair calculation and collection of taxes as well as the fair calculation and distribution of the benefits of welfare programmes. It will take a huge logistical operation, maybe involving another census (With all the politics that entails) the digitalization of all records and the creation of future record systems, the completion of up to date and accurate maps and address systems amongst other things. In order to be done properly it will require a great deal of capital (including political capital) but if it is actually accomplished it will have a lasting legacy on the Nigerian state.

Detail
The manifesto gives us an idea of how it wants to solve the problem and gives as its first step the development of an identity management system and talks about reinvigorating the national identity management commission. However, beyond this there is no detail given, no time scale, no funding plan, no breakdown of what exactly is entailed in creating a 'secure and efficient' identity management system.

My View
Social security or the lack thereof in Nigeria exasperates the problems of poverty, of education, of crime and security and of low level corruption. That said, I think the reliance on oil money separates people from the state, in order for people to demand the level of social security/welfare needed, they need to have a vested interest in the state and the best way to do this is through taxation. Team Ribadu's failure to focus on taxation loses him points but the priority placed on the identity management system regains him some points, as this would be necessary for any proper taxation system.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 4.5
Detail: 3.0
My View: 3.25

Ribadu on Women

Awareness
The plan seems very aware, at least in terms of rhetoric, of the importance of women to society, but fails to acknowledge why women are so important: their role in child education, their role in primary healthcare, their role in household saving and small enterprise. It also ignores how the treatment of women varies according to region, religion, wealth and socio economic status.

Ambition
The implementation of the Beijing Declaration, the World Summit Declaration, The Ouagadougou Plan of action and the MDGs may on the surface seem ambitious, but is difficult to say. The MDG was to remove disparity in primary education by 2005 and at all levels by 2015, if it aims at full implementation of the target perhaps it should be seen as ambitious as the 2005 targets haven't been met. The Beijing declaration set targets for 2000 and its targets haven't been met yet either.

Detail
There is no detail given as to what is going to be done in order to meet the internationally agreed goal. It doesn't say how much will be spent or how it would be funded. There is no mention of any concrete policy as to how to increase female participation in politics or increase the value of women's health, security or safety. In fact there is not one single policy statement in the this section.

My view
In the 21st Century, 'women issues' are acknowledged as a key component of any development plan. It however seems hard to formulate and implement policies that would have real effects on the fortune of women and 'girl-children'. However, I feel that the plan could have been more explicit in a commitment to fight child marriage and perhaps introduce an education programme that is part-time for young mothers. That said, the male dominance and the mentality of Nigerian society makes the discussion of women issues difficult, so Team Ribadu must be commended for their awareness of the problem

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 0.5
My View: 3.0

Ribadu on Corruption

Awareness
We have to take it as a given that he is aware of the nature, causes and implication of corruption in Nigeria due to his previous role. However, the manifesto doesn't detail the nature or indeed the scale of corruption in Nigeria and perhaps this is needed. Ho does do well to show that corruption in the private sector is also important and that corruption in general is bad for democracy.

Ambition
Perhaps due to his previous role, expectations were raised as to how he was going to fight corruption. There is no new initiative, no new hardline, no new taskforce. Instead what he is suggesting is that the system as a whole is made to work properly. However, given the current state that the three branches of the state -legislative, executive and judiciary - are in , restoring them to the right level of accountability is in itself ambitious. Also increased regulation of private markets is a controversial topic all over the world and so any move to do so will also be ambitious.

Detail
The plan for fighting corruption seems to be to strengthen the existing counter-corruption institutions, but no solid details on how this will be done are given. Will it be through increased funding, increased powers or consolidation of agencies. There is mention of regular training for legislature and judiciary and there is mention of citizen empowerment but again there fails to be any concrete policy plans to back this up.

My view
This section of the plan disappointed me. I thought the man who was the infamous anti-corruption tsar would come out with a detailed and forceful plan bursting with new policies and initiatives on how to fight corruption in all its guises. There is no mention of simple initiatives like digitalizing government accounts (moving away from cash) or like sterner punishments for officials who mis-declare their wealth (or at least some punishment). Something, anything for people to hold on to and say under this candidate things might actually change and this wasn't forthcoming. Even the rhetoric is tame and maybe this was deliberately done so as not to alienate him from the political class. But all in all on every front the section on corruption and governance left a lot to be desired.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 2.75
Detail: 1.0
My View: 1.0

Ribadu on Defence and National Security

Awareness
The fact that these two things are put into one section, suggest a lack of awareness. The police force is meant to prevent crime and keep the peace at home, and turning the army against your own population is a sign of state failure.
In terms of the problem with the police force, the plan is very good on the issues that are causing the police force to be inefficient - lack of training, being reactive rather than proactive, lack of equipment, lack of professionalism etc - however, it seems to skirt round the issue of whether the police needs to be restructured, should the police force not be run by individual states?
The plan is also good in realizing the role that the citizenry will play in reducing crime and how by bridging the gap between them and the police the work of crime prevention will be made easier.
In terms of the armed forces, it identifies 6 key areas that affect the armed forces and are largely concerned with the logistics of running the military in Nigeria in terms of equipment, housing, healthcare, pay and retirement benefits. Only one concerns the strategic role of the army, and given the history of military intervention in Nigeria questions must be raised about the strategic role of the military.

Ambition
In terms of the police and the armed forces the plan seems to be to restore them to full working order. While there is no doubt that the task will be difficult, requiring commitment of resources and political capital, it is not overly ambitious. In terms of citizen involvement, this is a relatively new concept in Nigerian security. The ambition of zero kidnapping is relatively ambitious in the circumstances and will need a plan.

Details
There is detail as to the implementation of continuous training for the police force and the introduction of performance based promotion. There is also detail of the citizen police meetings.
In terms of the armed forces the problems are well outlined and as such the policies to resolve them are implied. Nonetheless, slightly more detail could have been given for example how they will ensure consistency of procurement/maintenance of equipment, how regularly uniforms will be replaced etc.

My View
I think as commendable as every part of this section is, it misses out three vital points. One is preventing the causes of crime: by addressing the issue of unemployed young men one could easily reduce the incidence of kidnapping, armed robbery etc. There also needs to be a serious review of the judicial and penitentiary systems, so that criminals are punished by legal routes and innocent people are released ( this may involve clearing a backlog of cases/criminals currents incarcerated) Thirdly the plan doesn't address the issue of localizing police, I have to believe that localized police squads will be able to deal with local crime, although issues of national unity may need to be addressed before this can be happen.
In terms of the armed forces, we need to have a detailed expression of the future role of the army. There also needs to be a truth and reconciliation committee to address the crimes committed by the army during the civil war, under military rule and more recently in the Niger Delta.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.75
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 4.0
My view: 3.5

Ribadu on The Economy

Awareness
'The Pathway' is very perceptive of the problems of the Nigerian Economy. It acknowledges the problem of unemployment ( in particular youth and graduate unemployment) and the effect that this is having on education. It also notices the not-so-well publicised problems of a growing fiscal deficit, diminishing excess crude accounts, diminishing foreign exchange, increased domestic debt and the problem of states borrowing beyond their means. There is also an implicit nod to the need to diversify the economy away from the oil-sector.
However, there is no mention of the problem of inflation and in particular regarding the inflation of food prices and seasonal price variation. There is also no mention of income inequality.

Ambition
The aim of reducing youth unemployment will no doubt be difficult, but it has to be seen as necessary rather than ambitious. The failure to achieve it will lead to economic rot and political instability for generations to come. That said, the introduction of target based economic planning in Nigeria is ambitious in itself but beyond that the targets that are set (7-8% growth for the next five years) are very ambitious especially as without proper diversification the fortunes of the Nigerian economy are dictated by external factors ( global commodity, oil and food prices). So the less ambitious sounding plan for diversification is important to any grander plans for the economy.

Detail
The plan is very detailed in its analysis of the problem, It is very detailed in its goals giving measurable targets and specific timescales. Despite this, it is not forthcoming in what sepcific policies will be used to achieve these targets. It speaks of investment in infrastructure, healthcare education etc and creating 'an enabling environment' but this sort of rhetoric will surely be common to most people's manifestos and without specific policies to promote, then these are meaningless.

My View
I think the Nigerian government really doesn't have a saving mentality, building up reserves wil just leave more in the kitty for the next government to steal. I feel therefore that governemnt should spend, spend on new industries, spend on subsidizing burgeoning industries, spend on training and possibly spend on state-owned enterprises ( especially in agriculture). I am also disappointed that there is no plan to combat high inflation or at least bring it into the single figures. Having said that Mr. Ribadu's plan is on the money about a lot of the problems facing the economy and the targets set out to combat them are commendable.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 3.5
Detail: 1.5
My View: 3.0

Ribadu on Agriculture and Food Security

Awareness
Here he recognizes the historical failure of agricultural policy in Nigeria despite the well documented human and natural resources available to implement them. His plan also recognizes the role agriculture has in terms of reducing imports and creating jobs. In addition to this it does well to acknowledge that the failings in this sector are failings of productivity and not of effort.
However, the document could have done more to recognize the role played by food prices in terms of inflation and overall poverty. It also fails to link the failure of commercial agriculture in Nigeria to the policies (vis a vis subsidies) of the western world.

Ambition
The policy that is mentioned here is to provide every school child with an egg and a glass of juice/milk everyday by 2014. The plan also wants to put in place a system of grants and loans to help farmers. These are relatively ambitious without necessarily being revolutionary.

Detail
The Policy of providing school children with egg and milk is fairly detailed in that it is easily measurable and a time frame is given, however it fails to say who will fund it and how it will be distributed and who will enforce it. The grant and loan system is vague, vague in its criteria for giving out the loans and vague as to which crops will be supported. In general, the section is vague as to how the administration would seek to solve the problems of agriculture highlighted in the plan

My View
Agriculture is so important for any developing country, so much so that it needs to be at the core of economic/industrial/social policy.
There are problems surrounding property rights that need to be addressed first, but principally I think Nigeria should identify the food crops that are necessary for the nation and invest public finds in them - either through marketing boards (to encourage over-production) or to buy land and grow crops themselves. I think industrial (export orientated) agriculture should be pursued as well, in terms of palm oil, tea, cocoa, coffee, ground nut etc.
The plan to introduce a cup of milk and an egg into each child's school day is admirable but should really be part of a health policy. The use of grants and loans I am always suspicious of in the Nigerian context as it provides an avenue for the easy diversion of funds.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.75
Ambition: 2.75
Detail: 2.0
My View: 2.0

Ribadu on Transport

Awareness
The plan shows awareness of the failures in rail, air, water and road transport. But by focusing on rail fails to recognize the true importance of road travel in Nigeria. It is not just to do with the paving of roads, there are also issues of road quality, mapping of roads, traffic management, road user education etc. So a big area of concern is brushed over.

Ambition
The plan to build a modern rail network out of the bones of the colonial era rail system will be a colossal project and making it viable will be even tougher. Doubling the amount of road paved is admirable, but is it really enough? It is certainly not a comprehensive plan for creating a 21st century road network in Nigeria.
Making air safety a primary objective shouldn't be seen as ambitious but rather as mandatory, but making Nigeria an international hub will take a complete revamp of Nigeria's aviation sector.

Details
This section gives detail of how the programme will be funded ( through Public Private Partnerships) and the model on which it will operate. It also alludes to a pilot scheme that will be run. There is however, no information on deadlines for the pilot or the programme itself nor on how much track will be built and which cities will be connected etc.
The plan to double paved road is concrete (no pun intended) and is accompanied by details. The source of funding is also outlined, however, again there is no time scale set or stated priorities as to what roads will be paved first.
The plans regarding aviation are thin on detail, and there is no mention made of water transport.

My View
I think this section of the plan is well written but i struggle to agree with any of it. I'm not sure the amount of investment needed to build railways would not be better spent improving roads. I am not sure if there will be sufficient demand for private/commercial travel by rail. Will it not put a lot of commercial drivers out of work? I just feel like the ship for rail travel sailed a long time ago (again no pun intended). Road networks, mapping, congestion, road safety etc. would be a better use of money. A world class motorway system will have the desired effect.
Secondly the adoption of the British Railway Model is a failing of the plan, the UK has shown the problems with the model,with high and ever increasing ticket prices, less and less services and train providers going bust or abandoning their routes.
In terms of road renovation the plan isn't nearly ambitious enough, 30% of roads paved by 2015 will simply not be enough. Federal roads could be an efficient way of taxing commercial traders and a good high speed road network could be the veins of the Nation.
In terms of aviation I like the ambition - Nigerian airports should be a hub for travel in the region, of not the continent. This is something that can only be done by making the airport favourable to international carriers, I would have liked more concrete plans as to how this was going to be achieved.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.0
Ambition: 4.0
Detail: 3.25
My View: 1.5

Ribadu on Power

Awareness
The plan demonstrates an appreciation for the importance of power production to the economy and life in general. It recognizes the simple problem that demand for electricity exceeds supply. There is also a detailed analysis of the issue at hand with ample technical information on the nature of power production and distribution.

Ambition
Diversifying the energy mix by introducing clean coal technology would put Nigeria at the cutting edge of technology in terms of power production but would require heavy investment and heavy mining in coal producing regions. The inclusion of alternative energy sources - biomass, solar and wind - is also very ambitious as they will require the installation of new infrastructure, training of personnel and may possibly face opposition from local communities. There is also the somewhat ambitious aim of making PHCN and the power industry in general more customer friendly.

Details
There is and implicit policy to reduce technical and non-technical loss of power, but this is not laid out in any detail. The plan as I can see it is to match supply to demand by increasing supply through lowering loss of power, introducing new types of power production and re-orientating PHCN to better serve customers. This will be coupled with an education programme to minimize demand.
Beyond this, there is little detail: how many coal power stations will be built and by when; how they will be funded; where wind, solar and biomass will be introduced and by when; whether it will publicly or privately funded/run and how much energy all this will produce are all questions that are left to be resolved.

My view
I think that Mr. Ribadu's plan for power sector rejuvenation is good in its intention. We needed to modernise 20 years ago, now we need to revolutionize. The focus of any energy plan now should be on new/green energy, however, a lot of the technology that the Mallam mentions isn't yet at maturity level. There are still question marks over he green credentials of clean coal and things like wind energy attract a lot of criticism for their unsightliness  and their lack of efficiency. I believe that in the nigerian context we should focus on solar energy and biomass ( to deal with the mountains of rubbish piling up all over the country). The plan doesn't address the planned privatization of power production, I would have liked for him to come out either in favour or against it.

Scores ( Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 4.5
Detail: 2.75
My View: 3.25

Ribadu on Education

Awareness
In terms of education, Ribadu seems to be aware of the problem - in its scope, scale, causes and implications. He highlights the role of education for the economic and social development of the country and the need to make education a priority. The plan acknowledges the full range of issues in education: the issues of access to and capacity of educational institutions; the lack of a unified programme on education; the problem of specific disadvantage groups (girl child, alamjiri, nomads etc) and the issue of quality assurance. However, it doesn't address Universal Basic Education (UBE) explicitly.

Ambition
The plan doesn't lay out exactly what it wants to address or how. There is a specific reference made to the priority of funding and the need to meet the UNESCO recommendation on funding education. It also mentions the need to create a unified body in charge of education as well as improved inspection of schools. If we assume that every issue raised is to be addressed, then the plan is very ambitious but otherwise it lacks any real ambition.

Detail
The document is very detailed in its awareness of the problem, however it is very scanty on detail in regards to his goals and even more so in terms of how they are to be achieved.

My View
Education is important and should be the priority of any new government. It has the power to ameliorate a lot of the other problems facing Nigeria. Ribadu does a good job of expounding the problem but for me doesn't stress the importance of education. I think he should have made a commitment to UBE not just in the quantitative aspect of 100% education but in the qualitative aspects in regards to staff and facility. I personally would reduce the focus on secondary and tertiary education from the federal budget. Instead I would focus more on industry-specific vocational training (for agriculture, factory work etc)
The plan does well to identify minority groups ( girls, nomads etc) that need to be addressed; and while I agree, I would focus more on female education as this is the fairest way (not ethnic/region specific) and will have the widest reaching social, economic and health effect.

Scores (out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 2.0
Detail : 1.0
My view: 2.5

Ribadu on health

Awareness
In terms of awareness, Mallam Ribadu acknowledges the need for primary healthcare and investments in human resources, and more long-term the need to invest in secondary and tertiary infrastructure. There is also a nod to the university teaching hospitals.
There are however other problems or health issues that aren't addressed. There is no acknowledgement of the scale of investment needed (an issue in itself). It makes no mention of sanitation and education, easily addressable issues that will have monumental effects on the health of the nation.

Ambition
In terms of ambition, his plan aims to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) vis a vis reducing infant and maternal mortality and combating infectious disease. This on the face of it may not seem ambitious, as the goals are meant to be achieved by 2015 ( coincidentally the end of the next presidential term), however, as it has been suggested by Action Aid international Nigeria, the achievements of the health MDGs need sustained effort to be achieved in Nigeria and so in this regard the pan should be seen as ambitious. The plan to build 6 top of the range secondary and tertiary institutions across the geo-political zones is very ambitious. It will require money, expertise and political capital of epic proportions to be initiated and such commitments will surely need to outlive the presidency to reach the 'world-class' levels it aspires to.

Detail
This section of the manifesto is somewhat dry on detail, it says it will improve healthcare through improvement of human resources and improving efficiency and there is of course the promise of 6 new specialist hospitals. Beyond that however, there isn't much to go on, it talks of using incentives to attract more people to the workforce but leaves it at that. There is no plan set out for how to achieve the MDGs other than their attainment is a goal. There are no other measurable targets set for any of the ambitions, neither is there a time scale set nor are details of the funding of these projects given.

My View
I think health in Nigeria is a complex issue, the scale of health problems is undeniable: life expectancy is less than 50 years, infant mortality was 100/1000 live births in 2003. I think that tackling healthcare should be a job for both the public and private sectors. The government should focus on training and utilising primary healthcare professionals and publicly funded programmes for the time being should be limited to primary healthcare. Investment in secondary/tertiary healthcare should be left largely to the private sector for now. The government should also focus on non-sector specific things that will improve health such as education, sanitation, reducing smoking, promoting healthy active life-styles etc. These will have massive effects and will probably cost less.
A start must be made somewhere and the achievement of the MDGs by 2015 has to be part of any healthcare plan for Nigeria

Scores (out of 5)
Awareness: 3.25
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 2.0
My view: 3.0