Showing posts with label niger delta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label niger delta. Show all posts

Thursday, 10 March 2011

Buhari on National Security


Awareness
The CPC Manifesto is explicitly aware of the worsening security situation and does well to say that the decline into anarchy must first be stopped before any meaningful solutions can be put into place. The document also explicitly talks about the need to decentralise the security agencies and also points out the wide range of agencies, bodies and institutions that will be needed in order to properly address the issue. The plan singles out the Niger-delta and talks about the socio-economic causes of the militancy, however, it fails to extend this analysis to other insecure areas in Nigeria. Though mentioned in another section, the plan also shows awareness of the need to reform the police force.

Ambition
CPC aims to use every muscle of the state, including in certain situations the army to stop the spread or the deepening of insecurity. It also aims to invest in high-tech equipment to improve the work of the police force. Both these policies are neither here nor there. The state of police force equipment is embarrassing and reinvestment was probably long overdue. State failure can be defined as the loss of the monopoly of legitimate violence and so in that regard in order to prevent state failure the government has to do everything it can (including using the army of necessary) to prevent such a loss of control.
By far the most ambitious part of this plan is the policy to decentralize policing and security forces in Nigeria. This will require a constitutional amendment and will most likely face fierce opposition from the legislature at the federal level. It will require huge investment in each of the states and will require a huge expenditure of political capital to get done. If we take this as the reform of all law enforcement bodies that is referred to in the plan then that to becomes ambitious.

Details
The section on security (and the sub-section on police reform) are lacking in any real detail. The policy of reform and localization is not well defined. Will police forms be regionalised or devolved to states or cities? Will it be blanket devolution to all states/regions or will it simply be in specific areas? How will these forces be funded and when is the process of devolution going to begin?
For the ‘overall domestic security effort’ the plan does well to outline all the institutions that will be involved, but it does not mention a structure, a leadership or even a strategy for solving the problem or are we to assume that simply deploying all these people will make the place safer. For this policy as with the other policies in this section there is no reference made to measurable targets or timescales etc.

My View
I like this section, purely for the bravery to promise what a lot of the experts have been asking for for a while i.e. the localization of policing in Nigeria. I know it would be a risky move in a country in which national unity has not been cemented to arm and train security forces that have allegiance only to their state/region or whatever and not necessarily to Nigeria as a whole. But I am of the personal belief that we need to make strides towards true federalism and this is a very important step. I refuse to believe that Nigeria will break up but if that is the way it is going to go then why prolong the agony?
In terms of tackling insecurity, I think that the plan perhaps purposely ignores unrest in the north and focuses on the Niger Delta. While all these problems are essentially socio-economic I agree that the slide into state failure must be arrested by any means necessary. So all in all I like this section of the plan, it is well thought out but firm, but it certainly could do with some fleshing out to really sell it. 

Scores (out of 5)
Awareness: 4.25
Ambition: 3.75
Detail: 1.25
My View: 4

Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Ribadu on Niger Delta

Awareness
The document raises the issues that perhaps lie behind the more publicised issues of militancy. It talks about the environmental and economic problems that underlie the Niger-Delta Issue. It also does well to mention the role of the private sector, in particular the oil companies in any solution to the problem.
On the other hand, it fails to deal with the role of politicians in mobilizing (and often arming) youth and perpetuating the status quo. It also fails to mention the history of military intervention in the region and the legacy this has left behind.

Ambition
The stressing of the long term nature of the solution is a good starting point, there is also a good focus on the role of the private sector in retraining and providing jobs in the are. The revival of 'moribund' industrial and agricultural projects is very ambitious as they will require a fresh round of investment, management and continuing political will. The plan aims to enforce laws that are going to be passed or are going to come into force, this doesn't demonstrate and real ambition (beyond a commitment to the rule of law that should just be standard). The attempts to apply green initiatives in the Niger-Delta is on the other hand genuinely ambitious in the context of Nigeria. The creation of 'Green Jobs' will require a long term commitment in order to have the desired effect.
The plan fails to tackle some issues in regards to the oil companies and their track record and the plan could have been more ambitious by holding the oil companies to account in regards to their environmental records and perhaps limiting the number of immigrants they can employ.

Details
As which much of the other sections of this plan, this section is detailed in outlining the problem, but is weak in the nitty-gritty of how these problems will be ameliorated. There is however, reference made to several distinct policy points that span both the political and the economic.

My view
I think that the candidate is right to focus on job creation and environmental degradation. However, I think that history has shown that the private sector (particularly oil companies) aren't interested in the plight of people beyond how it affects their bottom line. The people of the region should therefore take some stake or ownership directly in oil production in order to ensure environmental projection, job creation and economic diversification.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.0
Ambition: 4.0
Detail: 2.5
My View: 3.0