Buhari on Remuneration and Housing

Awareness

The Buhari/Bakare manifesto puts the issues of remuneration (wage rates) and housing together in one section and on some level putting these two things together shows a lack of awareness of the scale and scope of both these issues taken separately.

That said there is a recognition that the issue of wages exists in both the private and public sector. It also highlights the importance of saving. It however ignores a number of issues including the role of trade unions in wage disputes, the effect of inflation and the cost of staples like food, fuel and electricity. There is also no mention made of the minimum wage.

In regards to housing, it acknowledges the importance of instituting a solid mortgage market that is able to catering to those in employment as well as the need for mass housing schemes. It also alludes to the issue of funding. It however doesn’t explicitly talk about low cost housing or the differing housing needs of urban and rural areas or the maintenance of existing buildings and how to ensure safety standards in future builds.

Ambition

This section contains the explicit promise to enhance public sector pay, which to be honest is mandatory at this stage. While it will require some moving around of money, it really ought not to put a strain on the economy to properly remunerate civil servants. Encouraging employer-employee consultations is not ambitious at all as neither party is bound to anything and it will be very difficult to force results from such an arrangement.

In terms of housing, the institution of proper mortgage system is very ambitious as it will require a number of institutions to ensure that there is sufficient supply at reasonable interest rates and that there is demand from people who are trackable and are able to repay the loans.  As to building ‘mass-housing’ this really depends on the scale of the housing that is to be built as to whether it will be ambitious or not.

Detail

This section like much of the manifesto is lacking in any real detail. The goal is painted out in vague terms, but we are not told what a fair wage will be, how it is to be calculated an how it would be enforced. We are not told how many houses the government intends to build using this Private Public Partnership nor where they will be or how long they will take to complete. We are not told what incentives/regulations will be put in place to have the desired effect on the mortgage market.

My View

This is one of the weakest sections of the whole document.  Firstly it takes two issues that should be big issues in their own right and then tries to amalgamate them. The issue of housing, particularly in urban areas is one of great concern. I think that the government should be looking to move people away from Lagos and Abuja by building cheap housing somewhere else.  If not for the problem of corruption in Nigeria, I would advocate that the government build these low-cost houses using private contractors and then sell them at a fixed price , giving preference to young couples.

As to the issue of wage, the CPC really needed to come out in favour or against the minimum wage as they did not their rhetoric on a fair wage will be seen as just that, rhetoric. I would have preferred a plan that set up a system akin to what they have in Ghana that pegs all government employees wages to each other’s e.g a teacher makes x, university lecturer makes 2x, a senator makes 4x etc so that if the cost of living rises then everybody’s wages rise proportionally. It would also reduce the propensity to strike and would give a whole new meaning to the term collective bargaining.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 1.75

Ambition: 1.75

Detail: .75

My view: 2.0

Buhari on Senior Citizen Welfare

Awareness

There may be questions as to how much of an issue senior citizen welfare really is, after all 70% of the population is under 30 and only a fraction of the remaining 30% will ever make it to the age of 70. That said, the issue is one of importance in the civil service and other forms of corporate employment and is important to the families of such people. In an atmosphere of rampant youth unemployment, family income becomes more important. And taken in this context there is a potential problem of the burden of retired or unproductive people with no income in already strained households. The manifesto doesn’t do much to explain this reality but it does implicitly highlight some of the problems including the slow or non-payment of retirement packages.

Ambition

There is no new policy that is put forward in this section; rather it reiterates a commitment to ensure that the existing pension system is carried out properly with an emphasis placed on the process of review of the process to ensure that the standard of living of pensioners is maintained.

It could have gone further perhaps to include a mandatory state pension as part of a taxation system for all adults or even by changing the retirement age.

Detail

There is little detail here, but that is because there doesn’t really need to be much detail given. As already mentioned there is no new policy being put in place

My View

Nigeria has a very young population, most of who are not thinking about their pensions let alone inclined to vote on those grounds, so it seems like an odd choice from a political standpoint. That said though, life expectancy will continue to improve for the average Nigerian over the next few decades, so in a sense there is a pension crisis looming at some point in the future. The problem now is simply one of mismanagement though, with pension funds of workers both in the private and public sector going missing. The solution in my opinion is that people should be encouraged to save but they shouldn’t be forced to take out a pension with an unreliable system, people aren’t stupid and if at any point a state (or even private) insurance/pension scheme becomes viable people will take it out. This issue of pensions however, raises other questions of retirement age? In a nation where the average life expectancy is 48 years, 70% of the population is under 30 and the median age is 19 is there not a strong argument for lowering the retirement age?

Score (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.5

Ambition: 1.0

Detail: 2.5

My View: 2.75

Buhari on Infrastructure

Awareness

Buhari’s plan outlines well the importance of infrastructure to the development of the country. It also picks up on the scale and scope – agriculture, power, transport and telecommunications -of the current inadequacy of infrastructure in Nigeria as well as the effect that this is having on the economy. The plan also recognizes the potential for job creation that the building of infrastructure will have. While not in this section but rather as part of the Mission, there is an explicit mention of the need to develop a maintenance culture.

However by lumping all these disparate yet individually important issues into one the General shows a lack of awareness of the scale of these issues. You are not going to be able to solve the problem of transport in the same way that the problem of power generation will be solved.

Ambition

As all these issues are treated together as one it is hard to tell how ambitious the plan is in any particular respect. In addition to which there is no clear policy that one can to point to. What this section does promise is that when infrastructures are undertaken they will be done through a combination of public private partnership (PPP). There is also a policy to implement a strict regulatory framework for these PPPs.

Detail

There is little or no detail as to what will be built, when, where or by whom.  It is however made clear that funding for these projects will be through PPPs.

My View

There is very little to actually go on in this section and in the whole document there is very little beyond rhetoric said about the state of infrastructure. This is particularly surprising from a political standpoint because it is the delivery of new roads, or better GSM signal or constant electricity that will really win voters on the ground, in addition to which the planned privatisation of PHCN is an easy policy to come out in favour or against, yet no mention was made of it. In my opinion the CPC should have treated transport, power and technology as three separate issues because these are the issues that people actually talk about. It is an opportunity missed.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.5

Ambition: 2.5

Details: 1.0

My View: 1.0

Buhari on Education

Awareness

There is little done in the manifesto itself to expound the need for education or the problems facing the education sector. However, there is a level of awareness that can be inferred from the policies out forward. The policies show awareness of the need to review the curriculums being taught in school and an awareness of the demand for education that is often coupled with lack of access to it. His policies also demonstrate a commitment to the Universal Basic Education (UBE) goal.

That said there are a lot of areas that the diminutive section on education doesn’t touch on. There is no mention of the quality of education in terms of the abilities/availability/commitment of the teachers and the availability of equipment and resources. It makes no reference to how schools are controlled and funded. It also neglects the education of girl-children and nomads, which need special attention in Nigeria.

Ambition

The first policy for universal attendance of junior secondary school is part of the nine years of education (UBE) commitment of the Millennium Development Goals to which Nigeria is a signatory. So this should really be seen as a pre-requisite for any current or future administration, although the compulsory continuation to senior secondary education and the emphasis on functionality throughout do show a level of ambition.

The ambition of any curriculum review depends on the review of the curriculum itself. Whether it will simply bring up to date outdated learning systems or practices or will choose to overhaul the whole thing remains to be seen.

The establishment of an education bank, geared at providing student loans will be a monumental task. Not only the initial difficulty of setting up and financing it, but the establishment of a system that will ensure that the bank is able to recover the money it lends will also be difficult.

Detail

This section of the plan only provides the policies in its barest forms. As already noted, there is no expounding of the scale of the issue, so too is there very little detail given of the how. The question with many of the policies will be how will they be funded (privately/publicly, federal/state) and how will they be monitored to ensure that standards are kept and in these regards the manifesto has nothing to say.

My View

I think that education should be the bedrock of any political manifesto for these upcoming elections. The ramifications of a good education system are wide reaching in terms of everything from crime to health to the economy and so I was particularly disappointed in this section.  I feel there is a need for a revolution in the education sector that will ensure UBE for all Nigerians, but beyond that will not just follow the trend. The focus really ought to be on vocational training and sector specific training. There are a multitude of unemployed graduates so stop funnelling more 16-18 year olds into an inadequate university system. The plan is not offensive to me, I understand if you believe the current 6-6-(4) or 6-3-3-(4) system of education is eventually going to come good in Nigeria then this is what needs to be done, but I don’t believe that.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.0

Ambition: 3.0

Detail: 0.5

My View: 1.5

Buhari on National Security

Awareness

The CPC Manifesto is explicitly aware of the worsening security situation and does well to say that the decline into anarchy must first be stopped before any meaningful solutions can be put into place. The document also explicitly talks about the need to decentralise the security agencies and also points out the wide range of agencies, bodies and institutions that will be needed in order to properly address the issue. The plan singles out the Niger-delta and talks about the socio-economic causes of the militancy, however, it fails to extend this analysis to other insecure areas in Nigeria. Though mentioned in another section, the plan also shows awareness of the need to reform the police force.

Ambition

CPC aims to use every muscle of the state, including in certain situations the army to stop the spread or the deepening of insecurity. It also aims to invest in high-tech equipment to improve the work of the police force. Both these policies are neither here nor there. The state of police force equipment is embarrassing and reinvestment was probably long overdue. State failure can be defined as the loss of the monopoly of legitimate violence and so in that regard in order to prevent state failure the government has to do everything it can (including using the army of necessary) to prevent such a loss of control.

By far the most ambitious part of this plan is the policy to decentralize policing and security forces in Nigeria. This will require a constitutional amendment and will most likely face fierce opposition from the legislature at the federal level. It will require huge investment in each of the states and will require a huge expenditure of political capital to get done. If we take this as the reform of all law enforcement bodies that is referred to in the plan then that to becomes ambitious.

Details

The section on security (and the sub-section on police reform) are lacking in any real detail. The policy of reform and localization is not well defined. Will police forms be regionalised or devolved to states or cities? Will it be blanket devolution to all states/regions or will it simply be in specific areas? How will these forces be funded and when is the process of devolution going to begin?

For the ‘overall domestic security effort’ the plan does well to outline all the institutions that will be involved, but it does not mention a structure, a leadership or even a strategy for solving the problem or are we to assume that simply deploying all these people will make the place safer. For this policy as with the other policies in this section there is no reference made to measurable targets or timescales etc.

My View

I like this section, purely for the bravery to promise what a lot of the experts have been asking for for a while i.e. the localization of policing in Nigeria. I know it would be a risky move in a country in which national unity has not been cemented to arm and train security forces that have allegiance only to their state/region or whatever and not necessarily to Nigeria as a whole. But I am of the personal belief that we need to make strides towards true federalism and this is a very important step. I refuse to believe that Nigeria will break up but if that is the way it is going to go then why prolong the agony?

In terms of tackling insecurity, I think that the plan perhaps purposely ignores unrest in the north and focuses on the Niger Delta. While all these problems are essentially socio-economic I agree that the slide into state failure must be arrested by any means necessary. So all in all I like this section of the plan, it is well thought out but firm, but it certainly could do with some fleshing out to really sell it. 

Scores (out of 5)

Awareness: 4.25

Ambition: 3.75

Detail: 1.25

My View: 4

Buhari on the Economy

Awareness

The CPC Manifesto shows awareness of the global context in which any modern economy must be viewed. It overtly acknowledges the role that both the private and public sector have to play and if we include the preamble on prosperity, the document also acknowledges the role that human capital has to play in the economy. There are is also an awareness of the role of the financial sector and the role of agriculture that can be inferred from the policies put forward. However, these issues could have been explicitly discussed. There is also no reference made to the manufacturing sector or possibly new/green industries. No reference is made to key economic measure such as growth, trade deficit, inflation or interest rates. 

Ambition

The plan seeks to review the process of privatization – this on the one hand is ambitious given the interest groups that could potentially lose out but ultimately must be seen as necessary.  Post-2008 a review of the financial and banking system in any country in the world is also necessary and as such can it really be seen as ambitious? The need to diversify the Nigerian economy is well documented, again a potentially difficult task but surely must be seen as a requisite for moving forward.

Overall in terms of the economy, the manifesto does not shy away from any of the main issues plaguing the economy and so definitely cannot be seen as cautious. However, the plan lacks any intention to go beyond the necessary and so can’t be seen as ambitious either. That said the introduction of a micro-credit scheme can be seen as going beyond this

Detail

This section is very short on detail. While the policy points to be pursued are well outlined, there is no mention of what the review and re-evaluation of privatization would entail. The plan doesn’t say what reforms will be put in place in the banking sector and how this will broaden or diversify the wealth distribution. A micro-credit scheme is mentioned but it does not say if it will be state-run or privately run and how widely it will be implemented. The programme of diversification is laid out in very vague terms. In fact the whole section is laid out in very vague terms and in the entirety of the section on the economy there is not one single figure, target or date set against which performance of these policies can be measured.

My View

The preamble of the manifesto talks of liberalism and free market economics and that made me initially sceptical. After reading the section on the economy there is very little that is free-market about it. General Buhari’s manifesto is talking about public private partnerships and pension schemes etc. I think that if he addresses the core issues he seeks to address then this is a good plan, however with such little detail while he has come up with the ‘what’ he still probably has to come up with the how. In addition I am very sceptical of micro-finance particularly in the African context, there is research to show that repayment rates and the net impact are lower in Africa compared to the Indian sub-continent where the scheme first gained fame.

Personally I think in the 21^st century you can’t come up with an economic plan that doesn’t include a green aspect. Not only is it good for the environment, but green industries create more jobs and foster technological development. I would have also liked to see some reference made to economic management and fiscal responsibility or to inflation or to the problems of state borrowing. It leaves a lot to be desired

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.0

Ambition: 2.5

Detail: 1

My View: 2.0