Buhari on Institutional Reform

*NB: This section could have been spread into the four constituent parts as it is in the manifesto, but then these sections would have scored very poorly in all categories*

Awareness

This section of the manifesto is wide reaching in terms of the institutions that it tends to reform – the Judiciary; all Law Enforcement; all Regulatory Agencies, Government Bodies and Professional bodies created by law; and all democratic institutions. In regard to each of these institutions the plan does well to allude to the problems which are currently plaguing them. However, in a section labelled institutional reform it fails to explicitly talk about constitutional reform, the one set of reforms that would adequately encompass all the aforementioned.

Ambition

The plan reads as very ambitious in this section, it plans to review all of the judiciary, all law enforcement etc. Even if that is merely an academic or theoretical review of all these institutions it will be epic. This review will not only encompass the legal system and the police force but presumably it will include bodies such as INEC, EFCC and ICPC. Many of the described institutions are in such a decrepit state that it will be difficult to revitalize them to the levels described in the document, and it will be even more difficult to do these reforms concurrently.  Any possible change will come up against stiff opposition from those who have entrenched interests in the status quo and as such will require a tremendous amount of political capital and will.

Detail

There is much detail given about the goals of all the reforms and from this there is a fair amount of implicit detail given about the current state of affairs. However, there is no detail given about the process of reform, how it will be made consultative, how long will any consultation take place, who are the relevant stake holders that will be consulted, how many decisions will be made at the federal and how many at the state level. There are a number of logistic issues that will arise if the institutions are to be reformed supposedly while they are still carrying out their functions and these issues are not addressed.

My View

The current constitution of Nigeria was hastily put together in the transition to civilian rule in 1999. It largely rehashed previous constitutions and there was almost no consultative process in its creation and was passed by military decree (i.e. no referendum, not even a sitting of the house of assembly). Like it or not this constitution is flawed and much of the reason why the institutions of state do not work is because the constitution itself doesn’t work. What Buhari and the CPC is proposing here is constitutional change even though they do not want to call it that. They plan to ‘review and reform’ almost every institution that is created by the constitution, when the more sensible approach would be to ‘review and reform’ the whole constitution. If we are going to start ‘reviewing and reforming’ the constitution, why not just start again from scratch with a real consultative process and a referendum for Nigerians to decide the social contract under which they plan to live?

I like the intent of this section, but I would have liked for it to have been bolder and come out and said what a lot of people are thinking.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 4.0

Ambition: 4.25

Detail: 2.25

My View: 3.75

Buhari on Infrastructure

Awareness

Buhari’s plan outlines well the importance of infrastructure to the development of the country. It also picks up on the scale and scope – agriculture, power, transport and telecommunications -of the current inadequacy of infrastructure in Nigeria as well as the effect that this is having on the economy. The plan also recognizes the potential for job creation that the building of infrastructure will have. While not in this section but rather as part of the Mission, there is an explicit mention of the need to develop a maintenance culture.

However by lumping all these disparate yet individually important issues into one the General shows a lack of awareness of the scale of these issues. You are not going to be able to solve the problem of transport in the same way that the problem of power generation will be solved.

Ambition

As all these issues are treated together as one it is hard to tell how ambitious the plan is in any particular respect. In addition to which there is no clear policy that one can to point to. What this section does promise is that when infrastructures are undertaken they will be done through a combination of public private partnership (PPP). There is also a policy to implement a strict regulatory framework for these PPPs.

Detail

There is little or no detail as to what will be built, when, where or by whom.  It is however made clear that funding for these projects will be through PPPs.

My View

There is very little to actually go on in this section and in the whole document there is very little beyond rhetoric said about the state of infrastructure. This is particularly surprising from a political standpoint because it is the delivery of new roads, or better GSM signal or constant electricity that will really win voters on the ground, in addition to which the planned privatisation of PHCN is an easy policy to come out in favour or against, yet no mention was made of it. In my opinion the CPC should have treated transport, power and technology as three separate issues because these are the issues that people actually talk about. It is an opportunity missed.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.5

Ambition: 2.5

Details: 1.0

My View: 1.0

Ribadu on Foreign Policy

Awareness
This section of Mr. Ribadu's plan realises that until Nigeria has sorted out its domestic situation, it can't be overly active in terms of foreign policy. Despite this, the plan could have done more to acknowledge Nigeria's role as a regional player in ECOWAS etc. and the implications this has or could have economically or militarily (although mention was made of the gulf of Guinea Commission). It also neglects to mention the role of diplomacy and foreign policy in addressing trade imbalances, attracting foreign capital and redressing the brain drain.

Ambition
The plan has little in the way of actual policy but demonstrates a desire to cut back the role Nigeria plays outside of our crusade for democratic government in the region.

Detail
As there is little in the way of policy, there is little in the way of detail, although reviving the Gulf of Guinea Commission is mentioned explicitly.

My View
I agree for the most part with the Mallam on this section. We as a nation need to stop throwing our weight about on the international scene until we have sorted out the problems at home. We need a period of isolation, where the only foreign policy addressed is to pursue economic issues such as the removal of subsidies and trade barriers, the compensating of developing economies for the brain drain and attracting strategic foreign direct investment

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.25
Ambition: 1.0
Detail: 1.5
My view: 4.25

Ribadu on Corruption

Awareness
We have to take it as a given that he is aware of the nature, causes and implication of corruption in Nigeria due to his previous role. However, the manifesto doesn't detail the nature or indeed the scale of corruption in Nigeria and perhaps this is needed. Ho does do well to show that corruption in the private sector is also important and that corruption in general is bad for democracy.

Ambition
Perhaps due to his previous role, expectations were raised as to how he was going to fight corruption. There is no new initiative, no new hardline, no new taskforce. Instead what he is suggesting is that the system as a whole is made to work properly. However, given the current state that the three branches of the state -legislative, executive and judiciary - are in , restoring them to the right level of accountability is in itself ambitious. Also increased regulation of private markets is a controversial topic all over the world and so any move to do so will also be ambitious.

Detail
The plan for fighting corruption seems to be to strengthen the existing counter-corruption institutions, but no solid details on how this will be done are given. Will it be through increased funding, increased powers or consolidation of agencies. There is mention of regular training for legislature and judiciary and there is mention of citizen empowerment but again there fails to be any concrete policy plans to back this up.

My view
This section of the plan disappointed me. I thought the man who was the infamous anti-corruption tsar would come out with a detailed and forceful plan bursting with new policies and initiatives on how to fight corruption in all its guises. There is no mention of simple initiatives like digitalizing government accounts (moving away from cash) or like sterner punishments for officials who mis-declare their wealth (or at least some punishment). Something, anything for people to hold on to and say under this candidate things might actually change and this wasn't forthcoming. Even the rhetoric is tame and maybe this was deliberately done so as not to alienate him from the political class. But all in all on every front the section on corruption and governance left a lot to be desired.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 2.75
Detail: 1.0
My View: 1.0

Ribadu on Defence and National Security

Awareness
The fact that these two things are put into one section, suggest a lack of awareness. The police force is meant to prevent crime and keep the peace at home, and turning the army against your own population is a sign of state failure.
In terms of the problem with the police force, the plan is very good on the issues that are causing the police force to be inefficient - lack of training, being reactive rather than proactive, lack of equipment, lack of professionalism etc - however, it seems to skirt round the issue of whether the police needs to be restructured, should the police force not be run by individual states?
The plan is also good in realizing the role that the citizenry will play in reducing crime and how by bridging the gap between them and the police the work of crime prevention will be made easier.
In terms of the armed forces, it identifies 6 key areas that affect the armed forces and are largely concerned with the logistics of running the military in Nigeria in terms of equipment, housing, healthcare, pay and retirement benefits. Only one concerns the strategic role of the army, and given the history of military intervention in Nigeria questions must be raised about the strategic role of the military.

Ambition
In terms of the police and the armed forces the plan seems to be to restore them to full working order. While there is no doubt that the task will be difficult, requiring commitment of resources and political capital, it is not overly ambitious. In terms of citizen involvement, this is a relatively new concept in Nigerian security. The ambition of zero kidnapping is relatively ambitious in the circumstances and will need a plan.

Details
There is detail as to the implementation of continuous training for the police force and the introduction of performance based promotion. There is also detail of the citizen police meetings.
In terms of the armed forces the problems are well outlined and as such the policies to resolve them are implied. Nonetheless, slightly more detail could have been given for example how they will ensure consistency of procurement/maintenance of equipment, how regularly uniforms will be replaced etc.

My View
I think as commendable as every part of this section is, it misses out three vital points. One is preventing the causes of crime: by addressing the issue of unemployed young men one could easily reduce the incidence of kidnapping, armed robbery etc. There also needs to be a serious review of the judicial and penitentiary systems, so that criminals are punished by legal routes and innocent people are released ( this may involve clearing a backlog of cases/criminals currents incarcerated) Thirdly the plan doesn't address the issue of localizing police, I have to believe that localized police squads will be able to deal with local crime, although issues of national unity may need to be addressed before this can be happen.
In terms of the armed forces, we need to have a detailed expression of the future role of the army. There also needs to be a truth and reconciliation committee to address the crimes committed by the army during the civil war, under military rule and more recently in the Niger Delta.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.75
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 4.0
My view: 3.5

Ribadu on Agriculture and Food Security

Awareness
Here he recognizes the historical failure of agricultural policy in Nigeria despite the well documented human and natural resources available to implement them. His plan also recognizes the role agriculture has in terms of reducing imports and creating jobs. In addition to this it does well to acknowledge that the failings in this sector are failings of productivity and not of effort.
However, the document could have done more to recognize the role played by food prices in terms of inflation and overall poverty. It also fails to link the failure of commercial agriculture in Nigeria to the policies (vis a vis subsidies) of the western world.

Ambition
The policy that is mentioned here is to provide every school child with an egg and a glass of juice/milk everyday by 2014. The plan also wants to put in place a system of grants and loans to help farmers. These are relatively ambitious without necessarily being revolutionary.

Detail
The Policy of providing school children with egg and milk is fairly detailed in that it is easily measurable and a time frame is given, however it fails to say who will fund it and how it will be distributed and who will enforce it. The grant and loan system is vague, vague in its criteria for giving out the loans and vague as to which crops will be supported. In general, the section is vague as to how the administration would seek to solve the problems of agriculture highlighted in the plan

My View
Agriculture is so important for any developing country, so much so that it needs to be at the core of economic/industrial/social policy.
There are problems surrounding property rights that need to be addressed first, but principally I think Nigeria should identify the food crops that are necessary for the nation and invest public finds in them - either through marketing boards (to encourage over-production) or to buy land and grow crops themselves. I think industrial (export orientated) agriculture should be pursued as well, in terms of palm oil, tea, cocoa, coffee, ground nut etc.
The plan to introduce a cup of milk and an egg into each child's school day is admirable but should really be part of a health policy. The use of grants and loans I am always suspicious of in the Nigerian context as it provides an avenue for the easy diversion of funds.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.75
Ambition: 2.75
Detail: 2.0
My View: 2.0

Ribadu on Power

Awareness
The plan demonstrates an appreciation for the importance of power production to the economy and life in general. It recognizes the simple problem that demand for electricity exceeds supply. There is also a detailed analysis of the issue at hand with ample technical information on the nature of power production and distribution.

Ambition
Diversifying the energy mix by introducing clean coal technology would put Nigeria at the cutting edge of technology in terms of power production but would require heavy investment and heavy mining in coal producing regions. The inclusion of alternative energy sources - biomass, solar and wind - is also very ambitious as they will require the installation of new infrastructure, training of personnel and may possibly face opposition from local communities. There is also the somewhat ambitious aim of making PHCN and the power industry in general more customer friendly.

Details
There is and implicit policy to reduce technical and non-technical loss of power, but this is not laid out in any detail. The plan as I can see it is to match supply to demand by increasing supply through lowering loss of power, introducing new types of power production and re-orientating PHCN to better serve customers. This will be coupled with an education programme to minimize demand.
Beyond this, there is little detail: how many coal power stations will be built and by when; how they will be funded; where wind, solar and biomass will be introduced and by when; whether it will publicly or privately funded/run and how much energy all this will produce are all questions that are left to be resolved.

My view
I think that Mr. Ribadu's plan for power sector rejuvenation is good in its intention. We needed to modernise 20 years ago, now we need to revolutionize. The focus of any energy plan now should be on new/green energy, however, a lot of the technology that the Mallam mentions isn't yet at maturity level. There are still question marks over he green credentials of clean coal and things like wind energy attract a lot of criticism for their unsightliness  and their lack of efficiency. I believe that in the nigerian context we should focus on solar energy and biomass ( to deal with the mountains of rubbish piling up all over the country). The plan doesn't address the planned privatization of power production, I would have liked for him to come out either in favour or against it.

Scores ( Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 4.5
Detail: 2.75
My View: 3.25

Ribadu on Education

Awareness
In terms of education, Ribadu seems to be aware of the problem - in its scope, scale, causes and implications. He highlights the role of education for the economic and social development of the country and the need to make education a priority. The plan acknowledges the full range of issues in education: the issues of access to and capacity of educational institutions; the lack of a unified programme on education; the problem of specific disadvantage groups (girl child, alamjiri, nomads etc) and the issue of quality assurance. However, it doesn't address Universal Basic Education (UBE) explicitly.

Ambition
The plan doesn't lay out exactly what it wants to address or how. There is a specific reference made to the priority of funding and the need to meet the UNESCO recommendation on funding education. It also mentions the need to create a unified body in charge of education as well as improved inspection of schools. If we assume that every issue raised is to be addressed, then the plan is very ambitious but otherwise it lacks any real ambition.

Detail
The document is very detailed in its awareness of the problem, however it is very scanty on detail in regards to his goals and even more so in terms of how they are to be achieved.

My View
Education is important and should be the priority of any new government. It has the power to ameliorate a lot of the other problems facing Nigeria. Ribadu does a good job of expounding the problem but for me doesn't stress the importance of education. I think he should have made a commitment to UBE not just in the quantitative aspect of 100% education but in the qualitative aspects in regards to staff and facility. I personally would reduce the focus on secondary and tertiary education from the federal budget. Instead I would focus more on industry-specific vocational training (for agriculture, factory work etc)
The plan does well to identify minority groups ( girls, nomads etc) that need to be addressed; and while I agree, I would focus more on female education as this is the fairest way (not ethnic/region specific) and will have the widest reaching social, economic and health effect.

Scores (out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 2.0
Detail : 1.0
My view: 2.5

Ribadu on health

Awareness
In terms of awareness, Mallam Ribadu acknowledges the need for primary healthcare and investments in human resources, and more long-term the need to invest in secondary and tertiary infrastructure. There is also a nod to the university teaching hospitals.
There are however other problems or health issues that aren't addressed. There is no acknowledgement of the scale of investment needed (an issue in itself). It makes no mention of sanitation and education, easily addressable issues that will have monumental effects on the health of the nation.

Ambition
In terms of ambition, his plan aims to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) vis a vis reducing infant and maternal mortality and combating infectious disease. This on the face of it may not seem ambitious, as the goals are meant to be achieved by 2015 ( coincidentally the end of the next presidential term), however, as it has been suggested by Action Aid international Nigeria, the achievements of the health MDGs need sustained effort to be achieved in Nigeria and so in this regard the pan should be seen as ambitious. The plan to build 6 top of the range secondary and tertiary institutions across the geo-political zones is very ambitious. It will require money, expertise and political capital of epic proportions to be initiated and such commitments will surely need to outlive the presidency to reach the 'world-class' levels it aspires to.

Detail
This section of the manifesto is somewhat dry on detail, it says it will improve healthcare through improvement of human resources and improving efficiency and there is of course the promise of 6 new specialist hospitals. Beyond that however, there isn't much to go on, it talks of using incentives to attract more people to the workforce but leaves it at that. There is no plan set out for how to achieve the MDGs other than their attainment is a goal. There are no other measurable targets set for any of the ambitions, neither is there a time scale set nor are details of the funding of these projects given.

My View
I think health in Nigeria is a complex issue, the scale of health problems is undeniable: life expectancy is less than 50 years, infant mortality was 100/1000 live births in 2003. I think that tackling healthcare should be a job for both the public and private sectors. The government should focus on training and utilising primary healthcare professionals and publicly funded programmes for the time being should be limited to primary healthcare. Investment in secondary/tertiary healthcare should be left largely to the private sector for now. The government should also focus on non-sector specific things that will improve health such as education, sanitation, reducing smoking, promoting healthy active life-styles etc. These will have massive effects and will probably cost less.
A start must be made somewhere and the achievement of the MDGs by 2015 has to be part of any healthcare plan for Nigeria

Scores (out of 5)
Awareness: 3.25
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 2.0
My view: 3.0