Buhari on Institutional Reform

*NB: This section could have been spread into the four constituent parts as it is in the manifesto, but then these sections would have scored very poorly in all categories*

Awareness

This section of the manifesto is wide reaching in terms of the institutions that it tends to reform – the Judiciary; all Law Enforcement; all Regulatory Agencies, Government Bodies and Professional bodies created by law; and all democratic institutions. In regard to each of these institutions the plan does well to allude to the problems which are currently plaguing them. However, in a section labelled institutional reform it fails to explicitly talk about constitutional reform, the one set of reforms that would adequately encompass all the aforementioned.

Ambition

The plan reads as very ambitious in this section, it plans to review all of the judiciary, all law enforcement etc. Even if that is merely an academic or theoretical review of all these institutions it will be epic. This review will not only encompass the legal system and the police force but presumably it will include bodies such as INEC, EFCC and ICPC. Many of the described institutions are in such a decrepit state that it will be difficult to revitalize them to the levels described in the document, and it will be even more difficult to do these reforms concurrently.  Any possible change will come up against stiff opposition from those who have entrenched interests in the status quo and as such will require a tremendous amount of political capital and will.

Detail

There is much detail given about the goals of all the reforms and from this there is a fair amount of implicit detail given about the current state of affairs. However, there is no detail given about the process of reform, how it will be made consultative, how long will any consultation take place, who are the relevant stake holders that will be consulted, how many decisions will be made at the federal and how many at the state level. There are a number of logistic issues that will arise if the institutions are to be reformed supposedly while they are still carrying out their functions and these issues are not addressed.

My View

The current constitution of Nigeria was hastily put together in the transition to civilian rule in 1999. It largely rehashed previous constitutions and there was almost no consultative process in its creation and was passed by military decree (i.e. no referendum, not even a sitting of the house of assembly). Like it or not this constitution is flawed and much of the reason why the institutions of state do not work is because the constitution itself doesn’t work. What Buhari and the CPC is proposing here is constitutional change even though they do not want to call it that. They plan to ‘review and reform’ almost every institution that is created by the constitution, when the more sensible approach would be to ‘review and reform’ the whole constitution. If we are going to start ‘reviewing and reforming’ the constitution, why not just start again from scratch with a real consultative process and a referendum for Nigerians to decide the social contract under which they plan to live?

I like the intent of this section, but I would have liked for it to have been bolder and come out and said what a lot of people are thinking.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 4.0

Ambition: 4.25

Detail: 2.25

My View: 3.75

Buhari on Healthcare

Awareness

The Maternal death rate of Nigeria is higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa so in one respect by formulating policy on maternal healthcare the CPC has acknowledged the problem. But in another respect they could have gone further to link such a high maternal mortality rate to the prevalence of under-age brides in certain parts of the country. The manifesto also acknowledges the importance of infant healthcare and regular and reliable drug supply. Also by mentioning the need for health insurance there is a nod to the issue of funding the healthcare system.

Beyond this the Buhari/Bakare manifesto could have gone further and highlighted the human resource problems facing the healthcare sector, the need for infrastructure and how the issues of health tie in with other issues such as education, sanitation etc.

Ambititon

The plan to extend free healthcare to pregnant women, children under the age of 18, the elderly over the age of 70 and people suffering from infectious diseases such as TB and HIV/AIDS has to be seen as very ambitious. In essence he (Buhari) is extending free healthcare to the majority of people who will need it in Nigeria (if the policy was extended to include malaria in the infectious diseases then he would be granting free healthcare to virtually all who need it). It will be an enormous task to train and equip enough people to do it and to ensure that the institutions built will be adequately funded and staffed.

Detail

Two of the policies in this section are well outlined. To be fair they are very blanket policies of free healthcare to a number of people and introducing a better drug management system. However, there is no information as to when they are likely to be implemented, how they will be funded and how they will be monitored. The policy to reform and strengthen the health insurance scheme is very vague, there is no indication which direction the reform will take and there is definitely no measureable goal against which its achievement can be measured.

My View

Firstly a promise to provide almost universal free healthcare doesn’t sit well with the principles of liberalism and free market economics that is stated in the mission section of the document. Secondly I think that rather than scaling up state involvement in healthcare, we should be scaling it down. The same way the state is committed to universal basic education; it should be committed to universal basic healthcare and nothing more. The state should ensure that everyone has access to a minimal but evenly distributed level of healthcare and after that the private sector should be allowed to do the rest. The issues of maternal/infant mortality and infectious diseases can be better tackled in cheaper ways such as through better education, better sanitation and better primary healthcare to detect issues before they go too far. Also any real discussion of maternal health in Nigeria cannot be had without a discussion of child brides particularly in Northern Nigeria, were state legislatures have been reluctant to pass laws restricting marriage to minors. As with this Manifesto’s section on education, if you believe that the problem with healthcare in Nigeria is not with the system but rather with the performance of the system then this is a very ambitious and good plan. But as with education, I do not believe this.

Scores (out of 5)

Awareness: 3.0

Ambition: 4.0

Detail: 1.5

My View: 2.25

Buhari on National Security

Awareness

The CPC Manifesto is explicitly aware of the worsening security situation and does well to say that the decline into anarchy must first be stopped before any meaningful solutions can be put into place. The document also explicitly talks about the need to decentralise the security agencies and also points out the wide range of agencies, bodies and institutions that will be needed in order to properly address the issue. The plan singles out the Niger-delta and talks about the socio-economic causes of the militancy, however, it fails to extend this analysis to other insecure areas in Nigeria. Though mentioned in another section, the plan also shows awareness of the need to reform the police force.

Ambition

CPC aims to use every muscle of the state, including in certain situations the army to stop the spread or the deepening of insecurity. It also aims to invest in high-tech equipment to improve the work of the police force. Both these policies are neither here nor there. The state of police force equipment is embarrassing and reinvestment was probably long overdue. State failure can be defined as the loss of the monopoly of legitimate violence and so in that regard in order to prevent state failure the government has to do everything it can (including using the army of necessary) to prevent such a loss of control.

By far the most ambitious part of this plan is the policy to decentralize policing and security forces in Nigeria. This will require a constitutional amendment and will most likely face fierce opposition from the legislature at the federal level. It will require huge investment in each of the states and will require a huge expenditure of political capital to get done. If we take this as the reform of all law enforcement bodies that is referred to in the plan then that to becomes ambitious.

Details

The section on security (and the sub-section on police reform) are lacking in any real detail. The policy of reform and localization is not well defined. Will police forms be regionalised or devolved to states or cities? Will it be blanket devolution to all states/regions or will it simply be in specific areas? How will these forces be funded and when is the process of devolution going to begin?

For the ‘overall domestic security effort’ the plan does well to outline all the institutions that will be involved, but it does not mention a structure, a leadership or even a strategy for solving the problem or are we to assume that simply deploying all these people will make the place safer. For this policy as with the other policies in this section there is no reference made to measurable targets or timescales etc.

My View

I like this section, purely for the bravery to promise what a lot of the experts have been asking for for a while i.e. the localization of policing in Nigeria. I know it would be a risky move in a country in which national unity has not been cemented to arm and train security forces that have allegiance only to their state/region or whatever and not necessarily to Nigeria as a whole. But I am of the personal belief that we need to make strides towards true federalism and this is a very important step. I refuse to believe that Nigeria will break up but if that is the way it is going to go then why prolong the agony?

In terms of tackling insecurity, I think that the plan perhaps purposely ignores unrest in the north and focuses on the Niger Delta. While all these problems are essentially socio-economic I agree that the slide into state failure must be arrested by any means necessary. So all in all I like this section of the plan, it is well thought out but firm, but it certainly could do with some fleshing out to really sell it. 

Scores (out of 5)

Awareness: 4.25

Ambition: 3.75

Detail: 1.25

My View: 4

Ribadu on Defence and National Security

Awareness
The fact that these two things are put into one section, suggest a lack of awareness. The police force is meant to prevent crime and keep the peace at home, and turning the army against your own population is a sign of state failure.
In terms of the problem with the police force, the plan is very good on the issues that are causing the police force to be inefficient - lack of training, being reactive rather than proactive, lack of equipment, lack of professionalism etc - however, it seems to skirt round the issue of whether the police needs to be restructured, should the police force not be run by individual states?
The plan is also good in realizing the role that the citizenry will play in reducing crime and how by bridging the gap between them and the police the work of crime prevention will be made easier.
In terms of the armed forces, it identifies 6 key areas that affect the armed forces and are largely concerned with the logistics of running the military in Nigeria in terms of equipment, housing, healthcare, pay and retirement benefits. Only one concerns the strategic role of the army, and given the history of military intervention in Nigeria questions must be raised about the strategic role of the military.

Ambition
In terms of the police and the armed forces the plan seems to be to restore them to full working order. While there is no doubt that the task will be difficult, requiring commitment of resources and political capital, it is not overly ambitious. In terms of citizen involvement, this is a relatively new concept in Nigerian security. The ambition of zero kidnapping is relatively ambitious in the circumstances and will need a plan.

Details
There is detail as to the implementation of continuous training for the police force and the introduction of performance based promotion. There is also detail of the citizen police meetings.
In terms of the armed forces the problems are well outlined and as such the policies to resolve them are implied. Nonetheless, slightly more detail could have been given for example how they will ensure consistency of procurement/maintenance of equipment, how regularly uniforms will be replaced etc.

My View
I think as commendable as every part of this section is, it misses out three vital points. One is preventing the causes of crime: by addressing the issue of unemployed young men one could easily reduce the incidence of kidnapping, armed robbery etc. There also needs to be a serious review of the judicial and penitentiary systems, so that criminals are punished by legal routes and innocent people are released ( this may involve clearing a backlog of cases/criminals currents incarcerated) Thirdly the plan doesn't address the issue of localizing police, I have to believe that localized police squads will be able to deal with local crime, although issues of national unity may need to be addressed before this can be happen.
In terms of the armed forces, we need to have a detailed expression of the future role of the army. There also needs to be a truth and reconciliation committee to address the crimes committed by the army during the civil war, under military rule and more recently in the Niger Delta.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.75
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 4.0
My view: 3.5