Buhari on Infrastructure

Awareness

Buhari’s plan outlines well the importance of infrastructure to the development of the country. It also picks up on the scale and scope – agriculture, power, transport and telecommunications -of the current inadequacy of infrastructure in Nigeria as well as the effect that this is having on the economy. The plan also recognizes the potential for job creation that the building of infrastructure will have. While not in this section but rather as part of the Mission, there is an explicit mention of the need to develop a maintenance culture.

However by lumping all these disparate yet individually important issues into one the General shows a lack of awareness of the scale of these issues. You are not going to be able to solve the problem of transport in the same way that the problem of power generation will be solved.

Ambition

As all these issues are treated together as one it is hard to tell how ambitious the plan is in any particular respect. In addition to which there is no clear policy that one can to point to. What this section does promise is that when infrastructures are undertaken they will be done through a combination of public private partnership (PPP). There is also a policy to implement a strict regulatory framework for these PPPs.

Detail

There is little or no detail as to what will be built, when, where or by whom.  It is however made clear that funding for these projects will be through PPPs.

My View

There is very little to actually go on in this section and in the whole document there is very little beyond rhetoric said about the state of infrastructure. This is particularly surprising from a political standpoint because it is the delivery of new roads, or better GSM signal or constant electricity that will really win voters on the ground, in addition to which the planned privatisation of PHCN is an easy policy to come out in favour or against, yet no mention was made of it. In my opinion the CPC should have treated transport, power and technology as three separate issues because these are the issues that people actually talk about. It is an opportunity missed.

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.5

Ambition: 2.5

Details: 1.0

My View: 1.0

Buhari on Healthcare

Awareness

The Maternal death rate of Nigeria is higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa so in one respect by formulating policy on maternal healthcare the CPC has acknowledged the problem. But in another respect they could have gone further to link such a high maternal mortality rate to the prevalence of under-age brides in certain parts of the country. The manifesto also acknowledges the importance of infant healthcare and regular and reliable drug supply. Also by mentioning the need for health insurance there is a nod to the issue of funding the healthcare system.

Beyond this the Buhari/Bakare manifesto could have gone further and highlighted the human resource problems facing the healthcare sector, the need for infrastructure and how the issues of health tie in with other issues such as education, sanitation etc.

Ambititon

The plan to extend free healthcare to pregnant women, children under the age of 18, the elderly over the age of 70 and people suffering from infectious diseases such as TB and HIV/AIDS has to be seen as very ambitious. In essence he (Buhari) is extending free healthcare to the majority of people who will need it in Nigeria (if the policy was extended to include malaria in the infectious diseases then he would be granting free healthcare to virtually all who need it). It will be an enormous task to train and equip enough people to do it and to ensure that the institutions built will be adequately funded and staffed.

Detail

Two of the policies in this section are well outlined. To be fair they are very blanket policies of free healthcare to a number of people and introducing a better drug management system. However, there is no information as to when they are likely to be implemented, how they will be funded and how they will be monitored. The policy to reform and strengthen the health insurance scheme is very vague, there is no indication which direction the reform will take and there is definitely no measureable goal against which its achievement can be measured.

My View

Firstly a promise to provide almost universal free healthcare doesn’t sit well with the principles of liberalism and free market economics that is stated in the mission section of the document. Secondly I think that rather than scaling up state involvement in healthcare, we should be scaling it down. The same way the state is committed to universal basic education; it should be committed to universal basic healthcare and nothing more. The state should ensure that everyone has access to a minimal but evenly distributed level of healthcare and after that the private sector should be allowed to do the rest. The issues of maternal/infant mortality and infectious diseases can be better tackled in cheaper ways such as through better education, better sanitation and better primary healthcare to detect issues before they go too far. Also any real discussion of maternal health in Nigeria cannot be had without a discussion of child brides particularly in Northern Nigeria, were state legislatures have been reluctant to pass laws restricting marriage to minors. As with this Manifesto’s section on education, if you believe that the problem with healthcare in Nigeria is not with the system but rather with the performance of the system then this is a very ambitious and good plan. But as with education, I do not believe this.

Scores (out of 5)

Awareness: 3.0

Ambition: 4.0

Detail: 1.5

My View: 2.25

Buhari on the Economy

Awareness

The CPC Manifesto shows awareness of the global context in which any modern economy must be viewed. It overtly acknowledges the role that both the private and public sector have to play and if we include the preamble on prosperity, the document also acknowledges the role that human capital has to play in the economy. There are is also an awareness of the role of the financial sector and the role of agriculture that can be inferred from the policies put forward. However, these issues could have been explicitly discussed. There is also no reference made to the manufacturing sector or possibly new/green industries. No reference is made to key economic measure such as growth, trade deficit, inflation or interest rates. 

Ambition

The plan seeks to review the process of privatization – this on the one hand is ambitious given the interest groups that could potentially lose out but ultimately must be seen as necessary.  Post-2008 a review of the financial and banking system in any country in the world is also necessary and as such can it really be seen as ambitious? The need to diversify the Nigerian economy is well documented, again a potentially difficult task but surely must be seen as a requisite for moving forward.

Overall in terms of the economy, the manifesto does not shy away from any of the main issues plaguing the economy and so definitely cannot be seen as cautious. However, the plan lacks any intention to go beyond the necessary and so can’t be seen as ambitious either. That said the introduction of a micro-credit scheme can be seen as going beyond this

Detail

This section is very short on detail. While the policy points to be pursued are well outlined, there is no mention of what the review and re-evaluation of privatization would entail. The plan doesn’t say what reforms will be put in place in the banking sector and how this will broaden or diversify the wealth distribution. A micro-credit scheme is mentioned but it does not say if it will be state-run or privately run and how widely it will be implemented. The programme of diversification is laid out in very vague terms. In fact the whole section is laid out in very vague terms and in the entirety of the section on the economy there is not one single figure, target or date set against which performance of these policies can be measured.

My View

The preamble of the manifesto talks of liberalism and free market economics and that made me initially sceptical. After reading the section on the economy there is very little that is free-market about it. General Buhari’s manifesto is talking about public private partnerships and pension schemes etc. I think that if he addresses the core issues he seeks to address then this is a good plan, however with such little detail while he has come up with the ‘what’ he still probably has to come up with the how. In addition I am very sceptical of micro-finance particularly in the African context, there is research to show that repayment rates and the net impact are lower in Africa compared to the Indian sub-continent where the scheme first gained fame.

Personally I think in the 21^st century you can’t come up with an economic plan that doesn’t include a green aspect. Not only is it good for the environment, but green industries create more jobs and foster technological development. I would have also liked to see some reference made to economic management and fiscal responsibility or to inflation or to the problems of state borrowing. It leaves a lot to be desired

Scores (Out of 5)

Awareness: 2.0

Ambition: 2.5

Detail: 1

My View: 2.0

Ribadu on The Economy

Awareness
'The Pathway' is very perceptive of the problems of the Nigerian Economy. It acknowledges the problem of unemployment ( in particular youth and graduate unemployment) and the effect that this is having on education. It also notices the not-so-well publicised problems of a growing fiscal deficit, diminishing excess crude accounts, diminishing foreign exchange, increased domestic debt and the problem of states borrowing beyond their means. There is also an implicit nod to the need to diversify the economy away from the oil-sector.
However, there is no mention of the problem of inflation and in particular regarding the inflation of food prices and seasonal price variation. There is also no mention of income inequality.

Ambition
The aim of reducing youth unemployment will no doubt be difficult, but it has to be seen as necessary rather than ambitious. The failure to achieve it will lead to economic rot and political instability for generations to come. That said, the introduction of target based economic planning in Nigeria is ambitious in itself but beyond that the targets that are set (7-8% growth for the next five years) are very ambitious especially as without proper diversification the fortunes of the Nigerian economy are dictated by external factors ( global commodity, oil and food prices). So the less ambitious sounding plan for diversification is important to any grander plans for the economy.

Detail
The plan is very detailed in its analysis of the problem, It is very detailed in its goals giving measurable targets and specific timescales. Despite this, it is not forthcoming in what sepcific policies will be used to achieve these targets. It speaks of investment in infrastructure, healthcare education etc and creating 'an enabling environment' but this sort of rhetoric will surely be common to most people's manifestos and without specific policies to promote, then these are meaningless.

My View
I think the Nigerian government really doesn't have a saving mentality, building up reserves wil just leave more in the kitty for the next government to steal. I feel therefore that governemnt should spend, spend on new industries, spend on subsidizing burgeoning industries, spend on training and possibly spend on state-owned enterprises ( especially in agriculture). I am also disappointed that there is no plan to combat high inflation or at least bring it into the single figures. Having said that Mr. Ribadu's plan is on the money about a lot of the problems facing the economy and the targets set out to combat them are commendable.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 3.5
Detail: 1.5
My View: 3.0