Ribadu on Niger Delta

Awareness
The document raises the issues that perhaps lie behind the more publicised issues of militancy. It talks about the environmental and economic problems that underlie the Niger-Delta Issue. It also does well to mention the role of the private sector, in particular the oil companies in any solution to the problem.
On the other hand, it fails to deal with the role of politicians in mobilizing (and often arming) youth and perpetuating the status quo. It also fails to mention the history of military intervention in the region and the legacy this has left behind.

Ambition
The stressing of the long term nature of the solution is a good starting point, there is also a good focus on the role of the private sector in retraining and providing jobs in the are. The revival of 'moribund' industrial and agricultural projects is very ambitious as they will require a fresh round of investment, management and continuing political will. The plan aims to enforce laws that are going to be passed or are going to come into force, this doesn't demonstrate and real ambition (beyond a commitment to the rule of law that should just be standard). The attempts to apply green initiatives in the Niger-Delta is on the other hand genuinely ambitious in the context of Nigeria. The creation of 'Green Jobs' will require a long term commitment in order to have the desired effect.
The plan fails to tackle some issues in regards to the oil companies and their track record and the plan could have been more ambitious by holding the oil companies to account in regards to their environmental records and perhaps limiting the number of immigrants they can employ.

Details
As which much of the other sections of this plan, this section is detailed in outlining the problem, but is weak in the nitty-gritty of how these problems will be ameliorated. There is however, reference made to several distinct policy points that span both the political and the economic.

My view
I think that the candidate is right to focus on job creation and environmental degradation. However, I think that history has shown that the private sector (particularly oil companies) aren't interested in the plight of people beyond how it affects their bottom line. The people of the region should therefore take some stake or ownership directly in oil production in order to ensure environmental projection, job creation and economic diversification.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.0
Ambition: 4.0
Detail: 2.5
My View: 3.0

Ribadu on Foreign Policy

Awareness
This section of Mr. Ribadu's plan realises that until Nigeria has sorted out its domestic situation, it can't be overly active in terms of foreign policy. Despite this, the plan could have done more to acknowledge Nigeria's role as a regional player in ECOWAS etc. and the implications this has or could have economically or militarily (although mention was made of the gulf of Guinea Commission). It also neglects to mention the role of diplomacy and foreign policy in addressing trade imbalances, attracting foreign capital and redressing the brain drain.

Ambition
The plan has little in the way of actual policy but demonstrates a desire to cut back the role Nigeria plays outside of our crusade for democratic government in the region.

Detail
As there is little in the way of policy, there is little in the way of detail, although reviving the Gulf of Guinea Commission is mentioned explicitly.

My View
I agree for the most part with the Mallam on this section. We as a nation need to stop throwing our weight about on the international scene until we have sorted out the problems at home. We need a period of isolation, where the only foreign policy addressed is to pursue economic issues such as the removal of subsidies and trade barriers, the compensating of developing economies for the brain drain and attracting strategic foreign direct investment

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.25
Ambition: 1.0
Detail: 1.5
My view: 4.25

Ribadu on Social Security

Awareness
This section of the plan notes the failure of social security programmes in Nigeria. It recognizes a need for both the public and private sector to be involved. On the other hand, it doesn't talk about the role of NGOs, charities and religious organizations. Also no mention is made of the need for taxation, although this may be implied by the policies put forwards

Ambition
The single policy explicitly stated - that of a the development of an identity management system - is so necessary for the fair calculation and collection of taxes as well as the fair calculation and distribution of the benefits of welfare programmes. It will take a huge logistical operation, maybe involving another census (With all the politics that entails) the digitalization of all records and the creation of future record systems, the completion of up to date and accurate maps and address systems amongst other things. In order to be done properly it will require a great deal of capital (including political capital) but if it is actually accomplished it will have a lasting legacy on the Nigerian state.

Detail
The manifesto gives us an idea of how it wants to solve the problem and gives as its first step the development of an identity management system and talks about reinvigorating the national identity management commission. However, beyond this there is no detail given, no time scale, no funding plan, no breakdown of what exactly is entailed in creating a 'secure and efficient' identity management system.

My View
Social security or the lack thereof in Nigeria exasperates the problems of poverty, of education, of crime and security and of low level corruption. That said, I think the reliance on oil money separates people from the state, in order for people to demand the level of social security/welfare needed, they need to have a vested interest in the state and the best way to do this is through taxation. Team Ribadu's failure to focus on taxation loses him points but the priority placed on the identity management system regains him some points, as this would be necessary for any proper taxation system.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 4.5
Detail: 3.0
My View: 3.25

Ribadu on Women

Awareness
The plan seems very aware, at least in terms of rhetoric, of the importance of women to society, but fails to acknowledge why women are so important: their role in child education, their role in primary healthcare, their role in household saving and small enterprise. It also ignores how the treatment of women varies according to region, religion, wealth and socio economic status.

Ambition
The implementation of the Beijing Declaration, the World Summit Declaration, The Ouagadougou Plan of action and the MDGs may on the surface seem ambitious, but is difficult to say. The MDG was to remove disparity in primary education by 2005 and at all levels by 2015, if it aims at full implementation of the target perhaps it should be seen as ambitious as the 2005 targets haven't been met. The Beijing declaration set targets for 2000 and its targets haven't been met yet either.

Detail
There is no detail given as to what is going to be done in order to meet the internationally agreed goal. It doesn't say how much will be spent or how it would be funded. There is no mention of any concrete policy as to how to increase female participation in politics or increase the value of women's health, security or safety. In fact there is not one single policy statement in the this section.

My view
In the 21st Century, 'women issues' are acknowledged as a key component of any development plan. It however seems hard to formulate and implement policies that would have real effects on the fortune of women and 'girl-children'. However, I feel that the plan could have been more explicit in a commitment to fight child marriage and perhaps introduce an education programme that is part-time for young mothers. That said, the male dominance and the mentality of Nigerian society makes the discussion of women issues difficult, so Team Ribadu must be commended for their awareness of the problem

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 0.5
My View: 3.0

Ribadu on Corruption

Awareness
We have to take it as a given that he is aware of the nature, causes and implication of corruption in Nigeria due to his previous role. However, the manifesto doesn't detail the nature or indeed the scale of corruption in Nigeria and perhaps this is needed. Ho does do well to show that corruption in the private sector is also important and that corruption in general is bad for democracy.

Ambition
Perhaps due to his previous role, expectations were raised as to how he was going to fight corruption. There is no new initiative, no new hardline, no new taskforce. Instead what he is suggesting is that the system as a whole is made to work properly. However, given the current state that the three branches of the state -legislative, executive and judiciary - are in , restoring them to the right level of accountability is in itself ambitious. Also increased regulation of private markets is a controversial topic all over the world and so any move to do so will also be ambitious.

Detail
The plan for fighting corruption seems to be to strengthen the existing counter-corruption institutions, but no solid details on how this will be done are given. Will it be through increased funding, increased powers or consolidation of agencies. There is mention of regular training for legislature and judiciary and there is mention of citizen empowerment but again there fails to be any concrete policy plans to back this up.

My view
This section of the plan disappointed me. I thought the man who was the infamous anti-corruption tsar would come out with a detailed and forceful plan bursting with new policies and initiatives on how to fight corruption in all its guises. There is no mention of simple initiatives like digitalizing government accounts (moving away from cash) or like sterner punishments for officials who mis-declare their wealth (or at least some punishment). Something, anything for people to hold on to and say under this candidate things might actually change and this wasn't forthcoming. Even the rhetoric is tame and maybe this was deliberately done so as not to alienate him from the political class. But all in all on every front the section on corruption and governance left a lot to be desired.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 2.5
Ambition: 2.75
Detail: 1.0
My View: 1.0

Ribadu on Defence and National Security

Awareness
The fact that these two things are put into one section, suggest a lack of awareness. The police force is meant to prevent crime and keep the peace at home, and turning the army against your own population is a sign of state failure.
In terms of the problem with the police force, the plan is very good on the issues that are causing the police force to be inefficient - lack of training, being reactive rather than proactive, lack of equipment, lack of professionalism etc - however, it seems to skirt round the issue of whether the police needs to be restructured, should the police force not be run by individual states?
The plan is also good in realizing the role that the citizenry will play in reducing crime and how by bridging the gap between them and the police the work of crime prevention will be made easier.
In terms of the armed forces, it identifies 6 key areas that affect the armed forces and are largely concerned with the logistics of running the military in Nigeria in terms of equipment, housing, healthcare, pay and retirement benefits. Only one concerns the strategic role of the army, and given the history of military intervention in Nigeria questions must be raised about the strategic role of the military.

Ambition
In terms of the police and the armed forces the plan seems to be to restore them to full working order. While there is no doubt that the task will be difficult, requiring commitment of resources and political capital, it is not overly ambitious. In terms of citizen involvement, this is a relatively new concept in Nigerian security. The ambition of zero kidnapping is relatively ambitious in the circumstances and will need a plan.

Details
There is detail as to the implementation of continuous training for the police force and the introduction of performance based promotion. There is also detail of the citizen police meetings.
In terms of the armed forces the problems are well outlined and as such the policies to resolve them are implied. Nonetheless, slightly more detail could have been given for example how they will ensure consistency of procurement/maintenance of equipment, how regularly uniforms will be replaced etc.

My View
I think as commendable as every part of this section is, it misses out three vital points. One is preventing the causes of crime: by addressing the issue of unemployed young men one could easily reduce the incidence of kidnapping, armed robbery etc. There also needs to be a serious review of the judicial and penitentiary systems, so that criminals are punished by legal routes and innocent people are released ( this may involve clearing a backlog of cases/criminals currents incarcerated) Thirdly the plan doesn't address the issue of localizing police, I have to believe that localized police squads will be able to deal with local crime, although issues of national unity may need to be addressed before this can be happen.
In terms of the armed forces, we need to have a detailed expression of the future role of the army. There also needs to be a truth and reconciliation committee to address the crimes committed by the army during the civil war, under military rule and more recently in the Niger Delta.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 3.75
Ambition: 3.0
Detail: 4.0
My view: 3.5

Ribadu on The Economy

Awareness
'The Pathway' is very perceptive of the problems of the Nigerian Economy. It acknowledges the problem of unemployment ( in particular youth and graduate unemployment) and the effect that this is having on education. It also notices the not-so-well publicised problems of a growing fiscal deficit, diminishing excess crude accounts, diminishing foreign exchange, increased domestic debt and the problem of states borrowing beyond their means. There is also an implicit nod to the need to diversify the economy away from the oil-sector.
However, there is no mention of the problem of inflation and in particular regarding the inflation of food prices and seasonal price variation. There is also no mention of income inequality.

Ambition
The aim of reducing youth unemployment will no doubt be difficult, but it has to be seen as necessary rather than ambitious. The failure to achieve it will lead to economic rot and political instability for generations to come. That said, the introduction of target based economic planning in Nigeria is ambitious in itself but beyond that the targets that are set (7-8% growth for the next five years) are very ambitious especially as without proper diversification the fortunes of the Nigerian economy are dictated by external factors ( global commodity, oil and food prices). So the less ambitious sounding plan for diversification is important to any grander plans for the economy.

Detail
The plan is very detailed in its analysis of the problem, It is very detailed in its goals giving measurable targets and specific timescales. Despite this, it is not forthcoming in what sepcific policies will be used to achieve these targets. It speaks of investment in infrastructure, healthcare education etc and creating 'an enabling environment' but this sort of rhetoric will surely be common to most people's manifestos and without specific policies to promote, then these are meaningless.

My View
I think the Nigerian government really doesn't have a saving mentality, building up reserves wil just leave more in the kitty for the next government to steal. I feel therefore that governemnt should spend, spend on new industries, spend on subsidizing burgeoning industries, spend on training and possibly spend on state-owned enterprises ( especially in agriculture). I am also disappointed that there is no plan to combat high inflation or at least bring it into the single figures. Having said that Mr. Ribadu's plan is on the money about a lot of the problems facing the economy and the targets set out to combat them are commendable.

Scores (Out of 5)
Awareness: 4.5
Ambition: 3.5
Detail: 1.5
My View: 3.0